ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT

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Lenton, Timothy M., et al. 2008. “Tipping Elements in the Earth’s Climate System.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105(6): 1786-93. Millner, Antony. 2013. “On Welfare Frameworks and Catastrophic Climate Risks.” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 65(2): 310-25. Mission Innovation. 2016. “About Mission Innovation.” (http://missioninnovation.net/about/). National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). 2012. “EPA and NHTSA Set Standards to Reduce Greenhouse Gases and Improve Fuel Economy for Model Years 2017-2025 Cars and Light Trucks.” National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centers for Environmental Information (NOAA). 2016a. “State of the Climate: Global Analysis for Annual 2015.” Report. (https://www.ncdc.noaa. gov/sotc/global/201513). ______. 2016b. “State of the Climate: Global Analysis for August 2016.” Report. (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201608). ______. 2016c. “U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters.” National Centers for Environmental Information. (https://www. ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/). Newbold, Stephen C., and Adam Daigneault. 2009. “Climate Response Uncertainty and the Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions.” Environmental and Resource Economics 44(2009): 351-77. Nordhaus, William D. 2009. “An Analysis of the Dismal Theorem.” Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper 1686. New Haven: Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University. ______. 2011. “Designing a Friendly Space for Technological Change to Slow Global Warming.” Energy Economics 33(4): 665-73. Nykvist, Björn, and Mans Nilsson. 2015. “Rapidly Falling Costs of Battery Packs for Electric Vehicles.” Nature Climate Change 5(4): 329-32. Obama, Barack. 2009. “Interview with President Obama on Climate Bill.” The New York Times. June 28. (http:// www.nytimes.com/2009/06/29/us/politics/29climate-text. html?login=email&_r=0&mtrref=undefined). References | 541
Office of Management and Budget (OMB). 2016. “Climate Change: The Fiscal Risks Facing the Federal Government, A Preliminary Assessment.” Report. The White House. Popp, David. 2003. “Pollution Control Innovations and the Clean Air Act of 1990.” Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 22(4): 641-60. Risky Business Project. 2014. “Risky Business: The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States.” Report. Robine, Jean-Marie, et al. 2008. “Death Toll Exceeded 70,000 in Europe During the Summer of 2003.” Comptes Rendus Biologies 331(2): 171-8. Schlenker, Wolfram, and Michael J. Roberts. 2009. “Nonlinear Temperature Effects Indicate Severe Damages to U.S. Crop Yields Under Climate Change.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106(37): 15594-8. Schwietzke, Stefan, et al. 2016. “Upward Revision of Global Fossil Fuel Methane Emissions Based on Isotope Database.” Nature 538(7623): 88-91. Slack, Megan. 2012. “Invest in a Clean Energy Future by Ending Fossil Fuels Subsidies.” White House Blog. March 26. (https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2012/03/26/ invest-clean-energy-future-ending-fossil-fuels-subsidies). Stott, Peter A., Dáithí A. Stone, and Myles R. Allen. 2004. “Human Contribution to the European Heatwave of 2003.” Nature 432(7017): 610-4. Turner, Alex J., et al. 2016. “A Large Increase in US Methane Emissions over the Past Decade Inferred from Satellite Data and Surface Observations.” Geophysical Research Letters 43(5): 2218-24. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). 2016. “Countries Agree to Curb Powerful Greenhouse Gases in Largest Climate Breakthrough Since Paris.” October 15. (http://unep.org/newscentre/ Default.aspx?DocumentID=27086&ArticleID=36283&l=en). U.S. Global Change Research Program. 2014. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. Edited by Jerry M. Melillo, Terese Richmond, and Gary W. Yohe. Government Printing Office. Vilsack, Thomas. 2016. “Statement by Thomas Vilsack Secretary of Agriculture Before the Senate Committee on Agriculture.” September 21. 542 | References
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT To
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C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REPORT OF
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economic report of the president To
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eforms in history. Banks have sharp
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the annual report of the council of
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C O N T E N T S CHAPTER 1: EIGHT YE
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. THE ECONOMIC RATIONALE FOR FEDERA
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2.4. Government Purchases as Share
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4.iii. Premium for the Benchmark Pl
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6.18. Systemic Risk (SRISK) 2005-20
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C H A P T E R 1 EIGHT YEARS OF RECO
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Figure 1-1 Actual and Consensus For
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Figure 1-3 Real Hourly Wage Growth
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Figure 1-4 Real GDP per Capita: Eur
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Figure 1-6 Household Net Worth in t
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Figure 1-8 Global Trade Flows in th
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Subsequent revisions to fourth-quar
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Percent 6 Figure 1-9 Fiscal Expansi
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substantial costs to the Federal Go
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worked to promote innovation and in
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expansion, a period of low producti
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The 2017 Economic Report of the Pre
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Chapter 4: Reforming the Health Car
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to the ACA and other factors. The A
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than 98 percent of Americans should
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Figure 1-13 Borrowers in Income Dri
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success of the financial rescue and
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einforced U.S. leadership in the ru
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Partnership (OGP), a global partner
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Figure 1-16 Labor Productivity Grow
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Labor Force Participation Household
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number of steps to ensure that econ
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C H A P T E R 2 THE YEAR IN REVIEW
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Percent 11 Figure 2-1 Unemployment
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allowing for additional investments
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Percentage Point 0.6 0.4 Figure 2-3
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public, largely highway constructio
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The size of the Federal Reserve’s
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Figure 2-5 Private-Sector Payroll E
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fell 80 percent from September 2014
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Figure 2-8 Rates of Part-Time Work,
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Figure 2-v Prime-Age Male Labor For
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Output Real GDP grew 1.6 percent ov
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Figure 2-11 Compensation and Consum
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Table 2-i Optimal Weighting for Hou
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esults suggest that, to a first app
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Figure 2-viii Real GDP, Average and
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Figure 2-13 Consumer Sentiment and
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Figure 2-xi Household Debt Service,
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Ratio to Annual DPI 1.10 1.05 Figur
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Figure 2-17 National House Price In
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Index 220 Figure 2-19 Housing Affor
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Figure 2-21 Composition of Growth i
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Figure 2-23 Capital Services per Un
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Box 2-7: Explanations for the Recen
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Figure 2-xv Business Fixed Investme
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Figure 2-26 Foreign Real GDP and U.
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somewhat generalizable (Box 2-8), b
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prices weakened and the global econ
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inadequate demand has contributed t
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Figure 2-31 Nominal Wage Inflation
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Figure 2-33 Real Hourly Wage Growth
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Index 6 Figure 2-36 Financial Condi
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Percent 4.0 Figure 2-38 Nominal Lon
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Dollars per Barrel 80 Figure 2-40 B
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Figure 2-41 IMF World Real GDP Grow
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against the Mexican peso, the Chine
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United Kingdom It has been a turbul
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for example, Japan has grown almost
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Figure 2-45 Credit to Nonfinancial
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Meanwhile, core inflation (excludin
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kept rates low across a wide range
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Investments in surface transportati
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Table 2-2 Supply-Side Components of
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Conclusion The economy continued to
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not increased from 1973 to 2013, in
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developments; individual behavior;
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action affecting income inequality
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have occurred. In doing so, these p
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Percent 24 21 18 15 12 9 6 African
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without the policy response.5 These
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Box 3-2: Income Inequality and the
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unable to obtain insurance at any p
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Figure 3-7B Percent 50 Uninsured Ra
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and have not expanded Medicaid foun
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Box 3-3: Safety Net Policies as Ins
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Millions of People 18 Figure 3-8 Im
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Figure 3-9 Effective Tax Rates for
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Box 3-4: Additional Actions to Make
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$294 million in newly appropriated
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15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 Figure 3-12 Pe
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Administration with those of previo
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as a share of potential GDP by Pres
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Figure 3-17 Changes in the Distribu
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30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Single Source: C
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ate on capital gains and dividends
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C H A P T E R 4 REFORMING THE HEALT
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eneficiaries have received cumulati
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form of lower premium costs and ind
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Percent 25 20 Creation of Medicare
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Figure 4-3 Health Insurance Coverag
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90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 25 55
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Percent Uninsured 25 CHIP Created 2
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Legislative actions subsequent to C
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Percent Uninsured 40 35 Figure 4-7
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ecause of the ACA’s provision all
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Box 4-2: Dynamics in the Individual
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projected during the debate over th
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whelming majority of Marketplace en
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Figure 4-v Change in Benchmark Prem
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20 Figure 4-10 Share of Workers in
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percent during the decade preceding
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Panel A: Share with a Personal Doct
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Box 4-3: Interpreting Results from
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Fortunately, the OHIE is not the on
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Figure 4-14 Uncompensated Care as a
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Figure 4-15 Uninsured Rate by Popul
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Figure 4-17 Monthly Gain in Private
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Change in Working-Age Employment to
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this cross-sectional relationship b
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ecent discussions of macroeconomic
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Figure 4-23 Life Expectancy at Birt
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Figure 4-24 Mortality Rate vs. Medi
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more to cover Medicare patients tha
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example, through CMMI, the Administ
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orient payment around the entirety
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Percent of Payments 60 Figure 4-26
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covered under ACO contracts at the
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Additional Steps to Reform the Heal
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legislation that overrides the reco
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Figure 4-28 Health Care Price Infla
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Figure 4-30 Trends in Real Prices f
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average growth rate of real per enr
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Figure 4-34 Growth in Real Costs fo
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made a large, readily quantifiable
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in states experiencing weaker and s
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distribution, holding fixed both sp
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individuals among individuals 65 an
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Figure 4-40 Average Real Deductible
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Figure 4-41 Real Per-Enrollee Presc
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educe the growth rate of Medicare s
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improvements will strengthen ACOs
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-5 0 -2 Figure 4-42 Cumulative Perc
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Woolhandler 2015). These analysts a
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productivity on the job. These bene
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Figure 4-46 Premiums and Cost Shari
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(KFF 2016). Another fifth of tradit
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2030 2028 2026 2024 2022 2020 2018
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C H A P T E R 5 INVESTING IN HIGHER
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Gainful Employment regulations. To
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Thousands of 2015 Dollars 900 800 7
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externalities, credit constraints,
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Figure 5-4 Earnings by Age and Educ
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Figure 5-5 Variation in Earnings by
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Box 5-1: Anti-Poverty Efforts and E
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careers. Some of the effects of the
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eligibility cutoff likewise finds s
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Box 5-2: Federal Investments in K-1
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Evaluations of early local Promise
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America’s College Promise Playboo
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Dollars 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000
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pre-payment penalty. Second, by tyi
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equirements, pushed efforts associa
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Figure 5-16 Size of Outstanding Loa
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Figure 5-17 Average Monthly Payment
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Figure 5-18 Distribution of Key Out
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Figure 5-20 Earnings by Family Inco
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to student needs and improve test s
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Box 5-5: Making Sure Students Enter
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prior, the early FAFSA reform helps
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Figure 5-ii Number of Institutions
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Figure 5-23 Gainful Employment Earn
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Additionally, Pell Grants can be be
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C H A P T E R 6 STRENGTHENING THE F
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with no easy way to get the funds f
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public has limited information, run
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value added of the sector has gradu
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managers. Thus, after fees, savers
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Too Many Resources in Finance? Beyo
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of the firm after the purchase affe
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Percent 100 Figure 6-2 Mortgage Ori
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Figure 6-4 Case-Shiller Home Price
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Figure 6-7 Global OTC Derivative Ma
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consumer and investor protections.
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Figure 6-iv Top 5 Banks as Share of
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cult to replace with services from
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Are U.S. Banks Too Big? The questio
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The three federal banking agencies
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Risk Taking The Dodd-Frank Act took
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Box 6-3: The Performance of Communi
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Figure 6-ix Return on Assets of Ban
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egulators can take a more holistic
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Figure 6-13 Repo and Reverse Repo,
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Figure 6-15 Private Funds Reporting
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Days 60 Figure 6-16 Weighted-Averag
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Figure 6-18 Systemic Risk (SRISK),
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In the absence of another financial
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lower funding costs in 2007-09, “
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through the Dodd-Frank Act and othe
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Prior to the financial crisis, one
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asis.24 One of the advantages of ce
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findings from the NRSRO examination
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Prior to the crisis, enforcement of
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Box 6-5: Addressing the Problem of
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Table 6-i Sources of Investment Adv
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financial system and the systems of
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Box 6-6: The JOBS Act While it was
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Figure 6-23 S&P 500, 2003-2016 Inde
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Figure 6-27 Mortgage Delinquency an
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It created the FSOC to consider ris
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energy efficient and lower greenhou
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of domestic actions to reduce green
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people and vegetation (U.S. Global
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investment are much higher than the
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Delaying Action on Climate Change I
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uses and land management activities
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Carbon Pollution Standards for Powe
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a projected range of $16 billion to
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these resulted in insignificant cha
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Figure 7-4 Corporate Average Fuel E
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diesel fuel and jet fuel. The Vehic
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Box 7-3: Building Resilience to Cur
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sources in the oil and gas sector,
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emissions and total greenhouse gas
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Figure 7-7 Energy Intensity of Real
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Figure 7-10 U.S. Petroleum Consumpt
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Figure 7-12 Energy Intensity Transp
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Figure 7-14c Energy Intensity Comme
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Figure 7-16 U.S. Energy Consumption
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2008 to 7 percent in 2015. Figure 7
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Index, 2008 =0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 Figure
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Figure 7-23 Decomposition of Emissi
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three determinants of emissions? If
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Percent 100 80 Figure 7-26 Sectoral
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characteristics, and management tre
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oil and gas sector) were subsequent
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while creating new jobs and raising
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such as using similar methodologies
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Box 7-4: Supporting Increased Penet
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sector, the fee would incentivize p
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to be used to decompose emissions i
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Reinvestment Act.” NBER Working P
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D’Amico, Stefania, et al. 2012.
Page 495 and 496: ______. 2016. “Chapter 3: Develop
Page 497 and 498: Chetty, Raj, et al. 2014. “Where
Page 499 and 500: NBER Working Paper 22170. Cambridge
Page 501 and 502: American Hospital Association and H
Page 503 and 504: Cantor, Joel C., et al. 2012. “Ea
Page 505 and 506: ______. 2012a. “Direct Spending a
Page 507 and 508: Dranove, David, Craig Garthwaite, a
Page 509 and 510: Wars: Global Solutions for Developi
Page 511 and 512: Huang, Jidong, and Frank J. Chaloup
Page 513 and 514: McWilliams, J. Michael. 2016. “Ch
Page 515 and 516: Pinkovskiy, Maxim. 2014. “The Imp
Page 517 and 518: ______. 2016. “Certification of M
Page 519 and 520: Arcidiacono, Peter, V. Joseph Hotz,
Page 521 and 522: Bulman, George, and Caroline Hoxby.
Page 523 and 524: ______. 2015a. “Economic Costs of
Page 525 and 526: Dobbie, Will, and Roland G. Fryer J
Page 527 and 528: Committee on Health, Education, Lab
Page 529 and 530: Jepsen, Christopher, Kenneth Troske
Page 531 and 532: Marcotte, Dave E., et al. 2005. “
Page 533 and 534: Reynolds, Arthur J., et al. 2011.
Page 535 and 536: Chapter 6 Acharya, Viral. V., Deniz
Page 537 and 538: Fama, Eugene F., and Kenneth R. Fre
Page 539 and 540: Wheelock, David C., and Paul W. Wil
Page 541 and 542: ______. 2016a. “The Economics of
Page 543 and 544: ______. 2016c. Short Term Energy Ou
Page 545: Interagency Working Group on the So
Page 550: A P P E N D I X A REPORT TO THE PRE
Page 553 and 554: Council Members and Their Dates of
Page 556 and 557: Report to the President on the Acti
Page 558 and 559: consulting with a wide variety of o
Page 560 and 561: In October, the Council released a
Page 562 and 563: Research Economists David Boddy . .
Page 564: A P P E N D I X B STATISTICAL TABLE
Page 567 and 568: GOVERNMENT FINANCE, INTEREST RATES,
Page 569 and 570: Year or quarter Table B-1. Percent
Page 571 and 572: Table B-2. Gross domestic product,
Page 573 and 574: Table B-3. Quantity and price index
Page 575 and 576: Table B-5. Real exports and imports
Page 577 and 578: Year Total Table B-7. Real farm inc
Page 579 and 580: Table B-9. Median money income (in
Page 581 and 582: Labor Market Indicators Table B-11.
Page 583 and 584: Year or month Table B-12. Civilian
Page 585 and 586: Table B-14. Employees on nonagricul
Page 587 and 588: Year or month Table B-15. Hours and
Page 589 and 590: Government Finance, Interest Rates,
Page 591 and 592: Table B-19. Federal receipts and ou
Page 593 and 594: Table B-21. Federal and State and l
Page 595 and 596: Table B-23. U.S. Treasury securitie
Page 597 and 598:
Year and month Bills (at auction) 1
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Year and month Table B-26. Money st
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