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130218_Luxor-Egypt SECAP Final

Section II: Baseline

Section II: Baseline Emission Inventory Executive Summary This section presents the Baseline Emission Inventory (BEI) of the city of Luxor, Governorate of Luxor, Egypt. The BEI is part of the preparation for the Sustainable Energy and Climate Action Plan (SECAP). The BEI is based on calculation, not a measure. It includes the scope and methodological principles of the Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emissions of the aforementioned city based on data collection from the Governorate of Luxor and many other governmental entities as well as data crunching and analysis. The BEI covers many sectors such as: a) Residential buildings; b) Tertiary buildings and Public lighting; c) Industry; d) Transport; e) Waste and water management; and f) Agriculture (crops, animal production and fishing); g) Tourism; and h) Renewable energy. This section also depicts the results of energy consumption and GHG emissions for the seven sectors mentioned above. In addition, it highlights the Governorate assets and energy consumption (Governorate building, Governorate fleet and water and waste management). Finally, it presents the BAU scenario forecasts and important rise of emissions from 2015 till 2020 and stabilisation till 2030. 1. Considered scope and methodological principles 1.1. Some orders of magnitude To apprehend the results of this Baseline Emissions Inventory (BEI), it is useful to understand the greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions orders of magnitude globally and in Egypt. • World human GHG emissions: 53 billion tCO 2eq/year • World human GHG emissions per capita: 7,55 teqCO 2/year • Egypt’s GHG emissions in 2012: 295 million tCO 2eq/year • Egypt’s population in 2012: 85,660,902 inhabitants • Egypt’s GHG emissions per capita in 2012: 3.44 tCO 2eq/year These average values are valid for the whole Egypt, including the city of Luxor - Governorate of Luxor and city of Hurghada - Governorate of Red Sea. In the two cities studied by the BEI-SECAP team*, the average GHG emissions per capita is aligned with national ratio for the city of Luxor, and significantly higher Hurghada (48.3 per cent higher than the national average). This result for Hurghada is due to the importance of tourism in this sector. Knowing that the IPCC set a target of dividing by two the global human GHG emissions, currently reaching the average 7.55 tCO 2eq/capita/year, we observe that emissions of Egyptian citizens are already near the target (3.5 tCO 2eq/capita/year), which is 3.44 tCO 2eq/capita/year. However, Egyptians GHG emissions tend to increase and could exceed this limit in the coming years due to rapid development currently underway. This is another reason why Egyptian cities need to develop strategic plans to reduce their energy 30

consumption and GHG emissions. 1.2. Methodological principles of the inventory The methodological principles of an inventory are the following: • Emissions are assigned to energy consumers; • Inventories must be addible: For example, if all localities of the governorate make their inventory, the sum of inventories equals the governorate inventory; and • A recent reference year: 2015, to describe a territory evolving rapidly. *BEI - SECAP Team: Bruno Rebelle, Dr Mohsen Aboulnaga, Emilie Essono and Sara Ali. Calculation method The BEI is a calculation, not a measure. In order to get a complete consumption and emissions inventory, we used several statistical data from reliable sources (electricity distribution, building surface, energy bills for public buildings, etc.) on which calculation hypothesis were applied when necessary (energy costs, unitary consumption of buildings, etc.) to obtain energy consumptions (all sectors) and non-energetic emissions (waste, water, agriculture). Figure 2: Calculation principle of the inventory This simplified calculation approach is likely to be tainted by various uncertainties: • Structural and activity data: low uncertainty • Hypothesis: medium to high uncertainty • Emission factors: low to medium uncertainty Considered scope Developing this BEI, we judged necessary to include the following sectors, but could not find sufficient hypothesis or structural data on stroke out sub topics. 31

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