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130218_Luxor-Egypt SECAP Final

negative impacts of

negative impacts of climate change. Figure 17 shows climate change impacts in Egypt in the past 4 years in several cities such as: Alexandria, Aswan, Luxor and the Red Sea area. Severe floods hit Alexandria, 24th Oct 2015 and 2016 resulting from climate change impacts a. Discourling of river Nile, Cairo b. Destruction by floods c. Vehicles submerged in floods Severe floods hit Ras Ghareb, Governorate of Re Sea, Nov. 1, 2016 – climate change risks Stormy floods in Sinai Stormy floods in Taba Stormy floods in Aswan Stormy floods in Sinai, Red Sea and Aswan, Egypt, May 2014 Snow sever storm and cold spell in Cairo-Egypt, 19 th December 2013 Figure 17: Classification Climate change impacts on Cities - Egypt Climate change impacts – Urban areas The impact of CC on urban areas is witnessed in temperature rise that led to increasing the Heat Island Effect (HIE), thus increase air pollution in urban areas. The higher the temperatures are the more ozone pollution on ground level that exacerbates diseases such as asthma and breathing difficulties even in healthy individuals. Heat stress affects public health, especially children, the elderly and respiratory patients and 80

cause mortalities 18 . In line with the above, an extraordinary heat wave hit Egypt, between 9 th and 18 th of August 2015, and had resulted in 200 people suffered from heat stress and hospitalised; beside 98 elderly people were reported dead 19 20 . Since 1960, global warming effect increases over Egypt and resulted in an increase in the frequency of warm nights and a decrease in cool nights between 1960 and 2003, as well as an increase in the summer temperatures’ averages. It is estimated that temperature will increases over Egypt between 3-3.5°C by 2100 21 . Also, reports stated that air quality is a problem - 20,000 people dying annually due to diseases caused by air pollution. The cost of air pollution on Egypt’s economy is ranging from 1 to 3 per cent of GDP 22 . Urban infrastructures are also vulnerable to CC impact, especially those located in the coastal zones. Floods along coastal areas due to sea level rise (SLR) are leading to damage of properties and disruption of infrastructure, namely the international coastal road, which is an important corridor that links the Northwestern coast to North eastern cost of Egypt. The high temperatures and coastal erosion will also increase the cost of maintenance of paved roads. For example, in 1980 the heat wave that hit the USA damaged hundreds of miles of highways 23 . It is projected that floods in Egypt will damage properties, infrastructure and displace people, e.g., flooding that took place in January 2010 affected over 3500 people and claimed 12 lives 24 . The annual loss in property’s values due to sea level rise (SLR) would be 1 to 2 EGP billion and 7 to 16 billion EGP by 2030 and 2060 respectively 25 . The predicted 50 cm rise in sea level would threaten 2 million people and force most of them to be displaced out of the risky zones near coastal area. Also, the migration waves due to floods will be forced to move to urban centres and rural settlements, hence increase the pressure on cities and its infrastructures, which are already suffering from heavy traffic due population growth. In addition, the salt water intrusion will affect the foundations of buildings, roads and water quality 26 . Climate change impacts – Costal zones The northern coastal zone of Egypt and the Nile Delta – 1200 km long the Mediterranean coast – are exposed to inundations (sea waves and floods), loss of land due to sea level rise (SLR), that is estimated at 704 18 Elizabeth Martin Perera and Todd Sanford, "Climate Change and Your Health: Rising Temperatures, Worsening Ozone Pollution," Union of Concerned Scientists, June 2011. 19 Egyptian Weather forecast Centre, (EWFC) 20 Ministry of Health report, August 17, 2015 21 "Climate: Observations, projections and impacts," UK Met Office, 2011. 22 David Tresilian, "Egypt and climate change," Ahram weekly, May 2014. Available at: weekly.ahram.org.eg /News/6060/32/Egypt-and-climatechange.aspx - Accessed in April 2016. 23 Christopher R. Adams, "Impacts of Temperature Extremes", available at: http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/ socasp/weather1/adams.html/. Accessed in April 2016. 24 "Historical Climate Variability and Change, Egypt dashboard", The World Bank Group, 2016, Available at: sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportalb/home.cfm?page=country_profile&CCode=EGY&ThisTab=RiskOverview, Accessed in April 2016. 25 Joel Smith, Bruce McCarl Texas, Paul Kirshen James Malley and Mohamed Abdrabo, "Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Egyptian Economy 2013," United Nations Development Programme, Cairo, Egypt, 2013. 26 Alexandra Fielden Intern, "Ignored Displaced Persons: the plight of IDPs in urban areas," Policy Development and Evaluation Service, UNHCR, no. 161, July 2008. 81

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