130218_Luxor-Egypt SECAP Final
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cause mortalities 18 .<br />
In line with the above, an extraordinary heat wave hit <strong>Egypt</strong>, between 9 th and 18 th of August 2015, and had<br />
resulted in 200 people suffered from heat stress and hospitalised; beside 98 elderly people were reported<br />
dead 19 20 . Since 1960, global warming effect increases over <strong>Egypt</strong> and resulted in an increase in the frequency<br />
of warm nights and a decrease in cool nights between 1960 and 2003, as well as an increase in the summer<br />
temperatures’ averages. It is estimated that temperature will increases over <strong>Egypt</strong> between 3-3.5°C by<br />
2100 21 . Also, reports stated that air quality is a problem - 20,000 people dying annually due to diseases<br />
caused by air pollution. The cost of air pollution on <strong>Egypt</strong>’s economy is ranging from 1 to 3 per cent of GDP 22 .<br />
Urban infrastructures are also vulnerable to CC impact, especially those located in the coastal zones. Floods<br />
along coastal areas due to sea level rise (SLR) are leading to damage of properties and disruption of<br />
infrastructure, namely the international coastal road, which is an important corridor that links the Northwestern<br />
coast to North eastern cost of <strong>Egypt</strong>.<br />
The high temperatures and coastal erosion will also increase the cost of maintenance of paved roads. For<br />
example, in 1980 the heat wave that hit the USA damaged hundreds of miles of highways 23 . It is projected<br />
that floods in <strong>Egypt</strong> will damage properties, infrastructure and displace people, e.g., flooding that took place<br />
in January 2010 affected over 3500 people and claimed 12 lives 24 . The annual loss in property’s values due<br />
to sea level rise (SLR) would be 1 to 2 EGP billion and 7 to 16 billion EGP by 2030 and 2060 respectively 25 . The<br />
predicted 50 cm rise in sea level would threaten 2 million people and force most of them to be displaced out<br />
of the risky zones near coastal area. Also, the migration waves due to floods will be forced to move to urban<br />
centres and rural settlements, hence increase the pressure on cities and its infrastructures, which are already<br />
suffering from heavy traffic due population growth. In addition, the salt water intrusion will affect the<br />
foundations of buildings, roads and water quality 26 .<br />
Climate change impacts – Costal zones<br />
The northern coastal zone of <strong>Egypt</strong> and the Nile Delta – 1200 km long the Mediterranean coast – are exposed<br />
to inundations (sea waves and floods), loss of land due to sea level rise (SLR), that is estimated at 704<br />
18<br />
Elizabeth Martin Perera and Todd Sanford, "Climate Change and Your Health: Rising Temperatures, Worsening Ozone Pollution," Union<br />
of Concerned Scientists, June 2011.<br />
19<br />
<strong>Egypt</strong>ian Weather forecast Centre, (EWFC)<br />
20<br />
Ministry of Health report, August 17, 2015<br />
21<br />
"Climate: Observations, projections and impacts," UK Met Office, 2011.<br />
22<br />
David Tresilian, "<strong>Egypt</strong> and climate change," Ahram weekly, May 2014. Available at: weekly.ahram.org.eg /News/6060/32/<strong>Egypt</strong>-and-climatechange.aspx<br />
- Accessed in April 2016.<br />
23<br />
Christopher R. Adams, "Impacts of Temperature Extremes", available at: http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/ socasp/weather1/adams.html/.<br />
Accessed in April 2016.<br />
24<br />
"Historical Climate Variability and Change, <strong>Egypt</strong> dashboard", The World Bank Group, 2016, Available at:<br />
sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportalb/home.cfm?page=country_profile&CCode=EGY&ThisTab=RiskOverview, Accessed in April 2016.<br />
25<br />
Joel Smith, Bruce McCarl Texas, Paul Kirshen James Malley and Mohamed Abdrabo, "Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the <strong>Egypt</strong>ian<br />
Economy 2013," United Nations Development Programme, Cairo, <strong>Egypt</strong>, 2013.<br />
26<br />
Alexandra Fielden Intern, "Ignored Displaced Persons: the plight of IDPs in urban areas," Policy Development and Evaluation Service, UNHCR, no.<br />
161, July 2008.<br />
81