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c,q /kao, PROPERTY OF THF H S. GOVE
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INSTITUTE FOR WATER RESOURCES In 19
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NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY AN ECONOMET
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS LIST OF FIGURES •
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Figure FIGURES Page 3.1 Two-Market
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Table Page 4.12 Rail Rate Regressio
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Table 4.A.5 Rate Regression Rail Qu
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This paper presents an economic mod
- Page 17 and 18: All transport modes are designed to
- Page 19 and 20: CHAPTER II REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE
- Page 21 and 22: The first significant generalizatio
- Page 23 and 24: artificially contrived solution met
- Page 25 and 26: trannportnLion, thin neglect ham cP
- Page 27 and 28: to the mode under consideration, cr
- Page 29 and 30: that even if the reasoning is 'corr
- Page 31 and 32: competition, that is where the qual
- Page 33 and 34: His estimating process is divided i
- Page 35 and 36: Table 2.1 COMMODITIES CARRIED ON TH
- Page 37 and 38: - 15 In a recent volume on the de=a
- Page 39 and 40: aggregation over regions for each c
- Page 41 and 42: for each of the modes under the ass
- Page 43 and 44: ail rates, and here he encountered
- Page 45 and 46: had statistical significance; howev
- Page 47 and 48: flows with actual shipments. 21 The
- Page 49 and 50: CHAPTER III THE TWO-MARKET MULTI-MO
- Page 51 and 52: the market price in A it is obvious
- Page 53 and 54: P b P o P a T r 0 Fig. 3.4 -- Equil
- Page 55 and 56: for all quantities, we conceive of
- Page 57 and 58: 0 (3.6.A) (3.6.B) Q 2 Fig. 3.6 -- T
- Page 59 and 60: • Q2 Qi Q0 Fig. 3.7 -- Two-Mode M
- Page 61 and 62: preference. He pays money today for
- Page 63 and 64: Situation II: Producer Ownership. T
- Page 65 and 66: little consideration will reveal th
- Page 67: considered these costs in several f
- Page 71 and 72: (T1) (T2) The effect upon Q of an i
- Page 73 and 74: (3.A.7) (3.A.8) APPENDIX A TO CHAPT
- Page 75 and 76: (3.A.17) (3.A.18) ■FQ 5-(43-- -7,
- Page 77 and 78: term more negative and, since it is
- Page 79 and 80: and its inverse (3.B.8) T c • C(Q
- Page 81 and 82: Now, going back to equation (3.3.7)
- Page 83 and 84: APPENDIX C TO CHAPTER THREE The Two
- Page 85 and 86: product to be transported, Q1 units
- Page 87 and 88: (3.C. 3) ,(3.C.6) The monopolist's
- Page 89 and 90: To obtain the greatest profits, the
- Page 91 and 92: .1., OA The sign of — is only sli
- Page 93 and 94: (4.11) (4.12) (4.13) (4.14) 111 Tc
- Page 95 and 96: (4.26) (4.27) (4.28) (4.29) (4.30)
- Page 97 and 98: The tons figure is the total tonnag
- Page 99 and 100: Since the aim of this study is to e
- Page 101 and 102: Distance ' Quantity Rate Eq. (4.33)
- Page 103 and 104: Distance Quantity Rate Eq. (4.33) (
- Page 105 and 106: Distance Quantity Rate Eq. , Source
- Page 107 and 108: Distance Quantity Rate . Eq. Distan
- Page 109 and 110: where R E average, revenue received
- Page 111 and 112: • Table 4.8 332.42 808.54 478.58
- Page 113 and 114: 269.02 931.44 900.75 0.98 0.98 0.97
- Page 115 and 116: Table 4.12 RAIL RATE REGRESSIONS FI
- Page 117 and 118: 1. date of the freight bill. 2. ori
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(4.41) Rik ■ 0 30 + 0 31 Mik + 0
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making is usually taken to refer to
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Total 728 79,603 Reduction due to m
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Source of Variance Total Reduction
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there is a wide difference between
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All Commodity Classes. Table 4.20 c
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Source of Variance Total 100 599,25
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Intercept Distance Quantity Density
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Intercept Distance Quantity Density
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stability and density showed very l
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groups into STCC commodity groups,
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The reduced form of this system is
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Exogenous , Changes(X) Transport de
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the quantity of commodity k transpo
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Regression Distance < 200 mi. Rail
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Regression Distance Rail Motor Dist
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increase with distances. This is ra
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Table 4.33 contains the derived rat
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Sample Regression Size Intercept M2
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Mode Int. Mode Sample Size Rate Tab
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Mode Sample Size Table 4.38 STCC 32
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Sample Regression Size Intercept Di
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Table 4.42 STCC 37 - TRANSPORTATION
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the three-mode model. Table 4.43 di
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Summary of the Empirical Results In
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Table 4.45 FREIGHT RATE DATA ANALYS
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Commodity Group II III IV V Total C
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Group Mode . I Truck Rail Water /I
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shipments. After a lengthy analysis
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for Group III is positive, large an
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of the underlying structural parame
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Table 4.49 DEMAND REGRESSIONS FINAL
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• supply The model assumes that t
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Commodity Group Table 4.50 DEMAND A
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APPENDIX A TO CHAPTER FOUR The Effe
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Table 4.A.2 RATE REGRESSION RAIL QU
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Table 4.A.4 RATE REGRESSION RAIL QU
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The overall tendency appears to be
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CHAPTER V SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS R
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theoretical basis for their empiric
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competitive industries. Applying th
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in the appendix to that chapter. Th
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Baumol, W. J., "Calcul
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United States Department of Commerc
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NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY A MODEL OF
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CHAPTER IV EMPIRICAL RESULTS . Page
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. INTRODUCTION Our goal is to study
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Other studies have been done by the
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. Recently air freight has grown aw
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• For instance, suppose a firm ha
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eceive the same criticisms as above
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Per Cent WA Decrease From Current L
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• Cargo . Brewer's analysis depen
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A different type of approach, is ta
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These substantial estimates of elas
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and the consumption points. These a
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Initially, the determinants of a fi
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axis. Q is the quantity the firm wo
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Arc elasticity of the associated tr
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• same A*es (-p)/-11 Skto 4441.
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Suppose that the range of one choic
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is better than getting P 2 tomorrow
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A, At the kink P . Any_further rais
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market price; or inventory costs ma
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The shipper must pay a transport bi
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quantity transported of Z decreases
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The analysis yields a downward slop
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of each market and calculates each
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If more consumption points ,are add
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or ( 5 1) . 1. Q-14.)4 `("P)EXarg (
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4. 0 -A? 040- Net MR 1 0 so. Ira."
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To determine the demand curve for t
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I • The above equations (1-4) wer
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(I). 1■1 (7). Id. (8). •a 0.0.1
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• goods arrive (so that Q A+Q S g
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k The optimal amounts of QA and Q s
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it has been used in economics. Basi
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An analogous relationship exists fo
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• • (11). Now a probability dis
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--_.—..---...........AawmarA D SA
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, (1). APPENDIX TO CHAPTER III SENS
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decreases. Proper choice of P rA (X
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products, have different cost funct
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The above data falls short of the q
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lower than air rates. It rises more
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One of the objectives of the study
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a. Regression equation TABLE IV-1 r
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significant. 8 It was, therefore, d
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in large tonnages tend to have a lo
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T .A T ° S Highest value per pound
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. In addition, only the smallest qu
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Here the deviations are zero. The r
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certain range, the demand estimates
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expected as goods in the discrimina
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• BIBLIOGRAPHY [1] Air Cargo Maga
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[24] 2 Study of the Possibilities f
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[42] Dawson, Michael, "A Technique
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[62] Gorham, G., Sealy, K.R. 1 and
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■•■•■■•••••
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[100] Richards, Anthony, The Role o
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[120] Traffic World Marketing Study
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! i \ NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY FREIG
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While working on this dissertation
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Anderson, T.W. "An Int
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VITA MICHEL VINCENT BEUTHE Born in
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of cost iv iazroduced at once along
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In the present theoretical formulat
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It is possible to generalize this m
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however, because of their nature, t
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ij xo ij ,Diagram 3, . 0 X ij of th
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equal to+ where E is the median of
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CHAPTER II Discrimination With One
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which is,.in this case, the only q
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Notc that the first subscript of a.
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I .' 1) (22) P 1 (X) = (25) Therefo
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(34) P 2 (X) (36) 1 = 1 a b c ' and
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CHAPTER III An Application - Corn T
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time the draft is honored by the co
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2. Critique of the Data. We must no
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made through questionnaires to coun
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we can still hope to obtain satisfa
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common and contract carriers are co
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Table II. Rail Time Regressions: Ti
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3. The Statistical Results. After t
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Table IV gives the discriminant fun
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February non-weighed July weighed T
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the binary problems, when the choic
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Table VII Probabilities that an obs
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Table VIII, Probability of Correct
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significantly different from the 'n
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-X _21 5.15 L4.45 TRUCK RAIL lalm
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CHAPTER IV. A Predictive Model of R
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C ab /C a is smaller than one, the
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II. Rail-Water Competition: One Por
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Until now, no attention has been pa
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9 ) (Z a - kZ b ) = C w /C r Zab +
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shipper. In the reality of competit
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DIAGRAM 5 For the most interesting
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DIAGRAM 7 waterway may be numerous.
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Note the restriction of Y to its ab
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the road-water route. In (24) C t (
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Squaring both sides, one obtains an
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interesting expressions. However, t
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CHAPTER V. This chapter attempts to
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TOTAL . COST D = -(L r - L t ) 2 Th
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2. Two Markets Model. subject --co
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X 0, X 2 - 0. It can readily be see
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the river does not have any --, but
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:sLY: x rail 0 truck 0 rail and tru
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'NLY: K rail 0 truck 0 rail and tru
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Table XI. Rail Rates Regressions: C
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mileages. The reason why this ratio
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Table XIII. Boundary Equations. Wat
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DIAGRAM 21 Figure T shows the actua
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truck sample is small ( 148 origins
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In this application of the spatial
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NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY LIBRARY Man
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in the dissertation. In addition, h
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Analysis of Tow in Motion 66 Introd
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Table • TABLES Statistical Result
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deepening or widening the channel,
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lines and isoquants. This locus is
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limited to the cost and production
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problem because engineers also atte
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are ignored. Making sure that the r
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variables, the form of the basic re
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family of cost curves obtained in t
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economies of scale exist in ihe tra
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in which R = resistance, in taw-rop
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(2)marginal productivity of the boa
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conditions are not always met in pr
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production relationship, e.g., a ma
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Howe's production and planning mode
- Page 465 and 466:
of the barge coefficient seemed to
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1962 counterparts. However, only (1
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A 10 peicont increase in all inputs
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proportion of constant costs. Typic
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In short, cost was estimated as a f
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o f cars, etc.). Each is then multi
- Page 477 and 478:
haul. The variable (Z/X) was used i
- Page 479 and 480:
In the switching process--which con
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defined to be the percentage change
- Page 483 and 484:
other production analysis of rail i
- Page 485 and 486:
of transportation, the inputs contr
- Page 487 and 488:
It will be convenient to define T f
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vchicles, is considered to be a poi
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F t (v) = B/v. 6 Therefore, the equ
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The graphical expression of Equatio
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And the distance traveled, D c , du
- Page 497 and 498:
CHAPTER IV LINEHAUL PROCESS FUNCTIO
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Form of Process Function The proces
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particular . trip', that tonnage ma
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ostimated from a capacity cable for
- Page 505 and 506:
The function was originaliy fit by
- Page 507 and 508:
were greater than 11 miles per hour
- Page 509 and 510:
effective-push functions will be ex
- Page 511 and 512:
ilotilla. These assumptions will no
- Page 513 and 514:
Upon testing the hypotheses indicat
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for in the first case tows were sem
- Page 517 and 518:
a 0 / V I HP 3000 - 12 - 225 • H
- Page 519 and 520:
3.5 3.0 1.5 5.. 2.0 7, 4.0 ■•
- Page 521 and 522:
A final note concerning the effect
- Page 523 and 524:
predict the time required for trave
- Page 525 and 526:
Given the tonnage, 0, to be carried
- Page 527 and 528:
existence. For example, the locks o
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If all locks on the waterway arc tr
- Page 531 and 532:
loaded ones in 1950; therefore p is
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T L -2; Single Double Locking Locki
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u T L 1 Table 4.7 INDIVIDUAL AND SY
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it would leave the system. Alternat
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The government should incur the cos
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I si,:e was 3.1 bares. The small av
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To simplify the analysis all delay-
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characteristics and delays. Therefo
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Equation (4.37) divides the total :
- Page 549 and 550:
Xore confidence may be attached to
- Page 551 and 552:
Recapitulation of Tow Linehaul Proc
- Page 553 and 554:
function. The difference beiween th
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S -, speed of water, in miles per h
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y the above analysis, but for more
- Page 559 and 560:
econoinic analysis of the rail linc
- Page 561 and 562:
deceleration, Equation (3.8). Moreo
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Then the cargo weight of the ith ca
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(4, 6, or 8), the weight of the loc
- Page 567 and 568:
Analysis of Train in Motion Introdu
- Page 569 and 570:
and F(v) = 1.3w c + 29a 0.045w c v
- Page 571 and 572:
Adiustment for Grade and Curvature.
- Page 573 and 574:
Curve resistance, like grade resist
- Page 575 and 576:
F . 0 VI Fd(v) F (v) t Fig. 5.1 --
- Page 577 and 578:
and (5.26), and 2-miles-per-hour sp
- Page 579 and 580:
per trip into several components, e
- Page 581 and 582:
N t = number of trains on a given r
- Page 583 and 584:
Table 5.1 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF T
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Each of the terms V f and C represe
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nowever, in the case of the rail li
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-, 1 9, D 0 ,- ._ 200 ! i 175 '—
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Horsepowe r ( in t hou sa n ds ) 3
- Page 593 and 594:
exceeded 6,000 horsepower, for at p
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Curvatures of greater than 5 degree
- Page 597 and 598:
hohavior of rail costs. First, the
- Page 599 and 600:
eing charged at the higher rate. Th
- Page 601 and 602:
2. If train speed is greater than o
- Page 603 and 604:
maximula attainable horsepower of t
- Page 605 and 606:
price for each locomotive unit from
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I L' is given by (0.5)($94HP L - $4
- Page 609 and 610:
Figure 5.4 displays a set of short-
- Page 611 and 612:
Economics of scale, in fact, seem t
- Page 613 and 614:
Tab1e 5.8 LONG-RUN MARGINAL COST OF
- Page 615 and 616:
obtained this way may then be added
- Page 617 and 618:
The estimating methods for each of
- Page 619 and 620:
Cos t per ton -mi le (m ;1 1s ) 7.2
- Page 621 and 622:
CHAPTER VI SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
- Page 623 and 624:
eached for acceleration, which take
- Page 625 and 626:
wide range of output would have to
- Page 627 and 628:
Isoquants between car and locomotiv
- Page 629 and 630:
eported in the dissertation will in
- Page 631 and 632:
10. M. Bronfenbrenner and P. H. Dou
- Page 633 and 634:
13. A. V.ctor Cabot and Arthur P. H
- Page 635 and 636:
7. There are in fact three differen
- Page 637 and 638:
26. Eric Bottoms, "Practical Tonnag
- Page 639 and 640:
19. Hay, An Introduction to Transpo
- Page 641 and 642:
BIBLIOGRAPHY American Railway Engin
- Page 643 and 644:
Howe, Charles M... "Methods for Equ
- Page 645 and 646:
Soberman, Richard. "A Railway Perfo
- Page 647 and 648:
NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY ESTIMATION
- Page 649 and 650:
TABLE OF COIMETS Page Chapter I. In
- Page 651 and 652:
CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION AND REVIEW O
- Page 653 and 654:
On the other hand, the statistical
- Page 655 and 656:
and capital Outlays are also treate
- Page 657 and 658:
TABLE 1 SUMMARY ESTIMATES OF RAILRO
- Page 659 and 660:
C (X) FIGURE • ■ 9
- Page 661 and 662:
The effects of two types of classif
- Page 663 and 664:
egression equations will produce bi
- Page 665 and 666:
S = speed in miles per hour W = wid
- Page 667 and 668:
(6) S = h(HP, L, B, H, D, W) The ac
- Page 669 and 670:
stock which remains idle. Under the
- Page 671 and 672:
The planning function also exhibite
- Page 673 and 674:
Of the production functions, (13, 1
- Page 675 and 676:
sources of data. Despite the use of
- Page 677 and 678:
The reader should note several them
- Page 679 and 680:
from variations in rates based on v
- Page 681 and 682:
service the firm would want to set
- Page 683 and 684:
oat output, or effort, is not propo
- Page 685 and 686:
this level of disaggregation are ex
- Page 687 and 688:
CHAPTER III A STATISTICAL PRODUCTIO
- Page 689 and 690:
A second way of generating data inv
- Page 691 and 692:
variables, even if it is not accura
- Page 693 and 694:
Three major inland waterway firms p
- Page 695 and 696:
from changing depth or stream flow.
- Page 697 and 698:
made for each. (In the log-linear r
- Page 699 and 700:
•Ps Variable Name Riven Districts
- Page 701 and 702:
Variable Name River Districts Port
- Page 703 and 704:
La Variable Name River Districts TA
- Page 705 and 706:
Variable Name River Districts TABLE
- Page 707 and 708:
t..n .....1 TABLE 6 . . VARIABLE ME
- Page 709 and 710:
A. Linear Regression (Arithi.etic M
- Page 711 and 712:
are roughly comparable across all c
- Page 713 and 714:
termed "labor embodied technologica
- Page 715 and 716:
TABLE 8 COMPANY ONE LINEAR REGRESSI
- Page 717 and 718:
the other monthly coefficients indi
- Page 719 and 720:
CHAPTER IV AN ANALYSIS OF DIRECT TO
- Page 721 and 722:
with the use of dummy variables. To
- Page 723 and 724:
A more direct method, and the one e
- Page 725 and 726:
. cost In using; for example, , cro
- Page 727 and 728:
• ,,, • .. -Excluded Variables
- Page 729 and 730:
200,000 EBM per year) comes to abou
- Page 731 and 732:
Form C weights have limited accurac
- Page 733 and 734:
study as to the level of output to
- Page 735 and 736:
The firm in the sample operates a l
- Page 737 and 738:
would tend to be slightly higher co
- Page 739 and 740:
3. other bulk 4. petroleum products
- Page 741 and 742:
In addition, river districts with s
- Page 743 and 744:
where: Cost = annual total direct b
- Page 745 and 746:
1964 1965 Variable Name Barge Type
- Page 747 and 748:
TABLE 13 F-TESTS FOR BARGE COST REG
- Page 749 and 750:
tend to rise with increases in barg
- Page 751 and 752:
ing is quite consistent with a prio
- Page 753 and 754:
TABLE 16 PERCENT COMMODITY REGRESSI
- Page 755 and 756:
arge was to ship one more commodity
- Page 757 and 758:
1 are the costs of operating and ma
- Page 759 and 760:
preparation of barges is necessary
- Page 761 and 762:
estimated was the same for all thre
- Page 763 and 764:
TABLE 17 DIRECT BARGE EXPENSE r 2 =
- Page 765 and 766:
Variable Name TABLE 19 TERMINAL EXP
- Page 767 and 768:
considerable growth in the past twe
- Page 769 and 770:
also be used in conjunction with di
- Page 771 and 772:
to an already scheduled tow). Two k
- Page 773 and 774:
The terminal results are quite tent
- Page 775 and 776:
The five firms in the sample repres
- Page 777 and 778:
sure the extent of this activity, a
- Page 779 and 780:
1 linear form of- the functions hav
- Page 781 and 782:
C. Net Tons of Barge Capacity TABLE
- Page 783 and 784:
Indirect cost is the same for towbo
- Page 785 and 786:
A. Total Horsepower TABLE 22 CROSS
- Page 787 and 788:
1 .‘ A. Total Horsepower TABLE 23
- Page 789 and 790:
to scheduling. In addition, we obse
- Page 791 and 792:
:CHAPTER VII SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION
- Page 793 and 794:
the coefficients of the dummy varia
- Page 795 and 796:
. The coefficients of the dummy var
- Page 797 and 798:
Supporting results for neutral tech
- Page 799 and 800:
port agencies. A considerable amoun
- Page 801 and 802:
I to inland waterway operators, sin
- Page 803 and 804:
Footnotes--Continued 7 Howe, Jan.,
- Page 805 and 806:
Footnotes--Continued This is also w
- Page 807 and 808:
Bibliography--Continued Interstate
- Page 809 and 810:
UNCLASSIFIED Security Classificatio