Q2 Z2,(Q2) Z2(Q2) - Institute for Water Resources - U.S. Army

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we are interested in three modes of transport, rail, water and motor. The modes are discussed in that order. Rail Transport We begin with our investigation of point-to-point rail rates. Utilizing cross-sectional data obtained from the 1963 Carload Waybill Statistics published by the Interstate Commerce Commission, we estimate regression equations linking the rail rate, for commodity classes and commodity groups, to a small number of variables representing the characteristics of the commodities and shipments. The Data. The Carload Waybill Statistics are published annually and contain data derived from a one-percent sample of audited revenue waybills terminated by Class I railroads. This information is pro- cessed and presented in a number of formats. The data utilized in this study come primarily from the State-to-State Distribution Series. 2 In this series data are presented on total annual shipments by commodity and by state of origin and state of destination. For each shipment information is given on carloads, tons, revenue, short-line ton-miles, short-line car-miles, average tons per car, average short-line haul per ton . and haul per car, and average revenue per 100 pounds, car, short-line car-mile and short-line ton-miles. From the above list we selected the average revenue per 100 pounds, which was later converted to a per ton figure, as our rail rate variable. For explanatory variables we chose tons, average short-line haul per ton and average tons per car. 2. "State-to-State Distribution(s)," Carload Waybill Statiatice, 1963, Statements SS-1 through SS-6, Bureau of Economics, Interstate Commerce Commission, Washington, D.C., Jan. 1966. 83
The tons figure is the total tonnage of the commodity carried from the state of origin to the state of destination during 1963. This should not be confused with the tons included in an individual shipment. It is an annual total. Information on the size of individual shipments would be valuable in that quantity rates and discounts are usually figured in these terms. Such information is not available however. The annual tonnage data were selected because we believed it would prove even more important in determining the level of rail rates. This annual tonnage reveals how important the product is to both the shipper and the railroads. We believed that as more of a product is shipped annually the rate charged per ton would tend to decrease. The average short-line haul per ton became our distance variable. Clearly, in constructing the freight rate for a ton of any commodity, the distance it is to be carried is the primary determinant. This belief was verified time and time again. Average tons per car was used as a surrogate for the density of the product. The rate charged for transporting commodities of different densities should vary, since undoubtedly the cost of transporting them varies. This variable was only utilized when more than one commodity was being . examined at the same time. That is, we selected the average tons per car figure for all shipments of a commodity. Our explanatory variable density then changed in value only when a new commodity was considered. This was also true of the price variable. So much is heard of value of service pricing in transportation that we felt it necessary to include a variable to attempt to capture this influence, if it was in fact present. For the vast majority of the commodities we were going to investigate, no demand studies have ever 84
Page 1 and 2:
c,q /kao, PROPERTY OF THF H S. GOVE
Page 3 and 4:
INSTITUTE FOR WATER RESOURCES In 19
Page 5 and 6:
NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY AN ECONOMET
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS LIST OF FIGURES •
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Figure FIGURES Page 3.1 Two-Market
Page 11 and 12:
Table Page 4.12 Rail Rate Regressio
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Table 4.A.5 Rate Regression Rail Qu
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This paper presents an economic mod
Page 17 and 18:
All transport modes are designed to
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CHAPTER II REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE
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The first significant generalizatio
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artificially contrived solution met
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trannportnLion, thin neglect ham cP
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to the mode under consideration, cr
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that even if the reasoning is 'corr
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competition, that is where the qual
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His estimating process is divided i
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Table 2.1 COMMODITIES CARRIED ON TH
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- 15 In a recent volume on the de=a
Page 39 and 40:
aggregation over regions for each c
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for each of the modes under the ass
Page 43 and 44:
ail rates, and here he encountered
Page 45 and 46: had statistical significance; howev
Page 47 and 48: flows with actual shipments. 21 The
Page 49 and 50: CHAPTER III THE TWO-MARKET MULTI-MO
Page 51 and 52: the market price in A it is obvious
Page 53 and 54: P b P o P a T r 0 Fig. 3.4 -- Equil
Page 55 and 56: for all quantities, we conceive of
Page 57 and 58: 0 (3.6.A) (3.6.B) Q 2 Fig. 3.6 -- T
Page 59 and 60: • Q2 Qi Q0 Fig. 3.7 -- Two-Mode M
Page 61 and 62: preference. He pays money today for
Page 63 and 64: Situation II: Producer Ownership. T
Page 65 and 66: little consideration will reveal th
Page 67 and 68: considered these costs in several f
Page 69 and 70: Then, to calculate the rate of chan
Page 71 and 72: (T1) (T2) The effect upon Q of an i
Page 73 and 74: (3.A.7) (3.A.8) APPENDIX A TO CHAPT
Page 75 and 76: (3.A.17) (3.A.18) ■FQ 5-(43-- -7,
Page 77 and 78: term more negative and, since it is
Page 79 and 80: and its inverse (3.B.8) T c • C(Q
Page 81 and 82: Now, going back to equation (3.3.7)
Page 83 and 84: APPENDIX C TO CHAPTER THREE The Two
Page 85 and 86: product to be transported, Q1 units
Page 87 and 88: (3.C. 3) ,(3.C.6) The monopolist's
Page 89 and 90: To obtain the greatest profits, the
Page 91 and 92: .1., OA The sign of — is only sli
Page 93 and 94: (4.11) (4.12) (4.13) (4.14) 111 Tc
Page 95: (4.26) (4.27) (4.28) (4.29) (4.30)
Page 99 and 100: Since the aim of this study is to e
Page 101 and 102: Distance ' Quantity Rate Eq. (4.33)
Page 103 and 104: Distance Quantity Rate Eq. (4.33) (
Page 105 and 106: Distance Quantity Rate Eq. , Source
Page 107 and 108: Distance Quantity Rate . Eq. Distan
Page 109 and 110: where R E average, revenue received
Page 111 and 112: • Table 4.8 332.42 808.54 478.58
Page 113 and 114: 269.02 931.44 900.75 0.98 0.98 0.97
Page 115 and 116: Table 4.12 RAIL RATE REGRESSIONS FI
Page 117 and 118: 1. date of the freight bill. 2. ori
Page 119 and 120: (4.41) Rik ■ 0 30 + 0 31 Mik + 0
Page 121 and 122: making is usually taken to refer to
Page 123 and 124: Total 728 79,603 Reduction due to m
Page 125 and 126: Source of Variance Total Reduction
Page 127 and 128: there is a wide difference between
Page 129 and 130: All Commodity Classes. Table 4.20 c
Page 131 and 132: Source of Variance Total 100 599,25
Page 133 and 134: Intercept Distance Quantity Density
Page 135 and 136: Intercept Distance Quantity Density
Page 137 and 138: stability and density showed very l
Page 139 and 140: groups into STCC commodity groups,
Page 141 and 142: The reduced form of this system is
Page 143 and 144: Exogenous , Changes(X) Transport de
Page 145 and 146: the quantity of commodity k transpo
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Regression Distance < 200 mi. Rail
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Regression Distance Rail Motor Dist
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increase with distances. This is ra
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Table 4.33 contains the derived rat
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Sample Regression Size Intercept M2
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Mode Int. Mode Sample Size Rate Tab
Page 159 and 160:
Mode Sample Size Table 4.38 STCC 32
Page 161 and 162:
Sample Regression Size Intercept Di
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Table 4.42 STCC 37 - TRANSPORTATION
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the three-mode model. Table 4.43 di
Page 167 and 168:
Summary of the Empirical Results In
Page 169 and 170:
Table 4.45 FREIGHT RATE DATA ANALYS
Page 171 and 172:
Commodity Group II III IV V Total C
Page 173 and 174:
Group Mode . I Truck Rail Water /I
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shipments. After a lengthy analysis
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for Group III is positive, large an
Page 179 and 180:
of the underlying structural parame
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Table 4.49 DEMAND REGRESSIONS FINAL
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• supply The model assumes that t
Page 185 and 186:
Commodity Group Table 4.50 DEMAND A
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APPENDIX A TO CHAPTER FOUR The Effe
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Table 4.A.2 RATE REGRESSION RAIL QU
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Table 4.A.4 RATE REGRESSION RAIL QU
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The overall tendency appears to be
Page 195 and 196:
CHAPTER V SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS R
Page 197 and 198:
theoretical basis for their empiric
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competitive industries. Applying th
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in the appendix to that chapter. Th
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Baumol, W. J., "Calcul
Page 205 and 206:
United States Department of Commerc
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NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY A MODEL OF
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CHAPTER IV EMPIRICAL RESULTS . Page
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. INTRODUCTION Our goal is to study
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Other studies have been done by the
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. Recently air freight has grown aw
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• For instance, suppose a firm ha
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eceive the same criticisms as above
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Per Cent WA Decrease From Current L
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• Cargo . Brewer's analysis depen
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A different type of approach, is ta
Page 227 and 228:
These substantial estimates of elas
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and the consumption points. These a
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Initially, the determinants of a fi
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axis. Q is the quantity the firm wo
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Arc elasticity of the associated tr
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• same A*es (-p)/-11 Skto 4441.
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Suppose that the range of one choic
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is better than getting P 2 tomorrow
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A, At the kink P . Any_further rais
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market price; or inventory costs ma
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The shipper must pay a transport bi
Page 249 and 250:
quantity transported of Z decreases
Page 251 and 252:
The analysis yields a downward slop
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of each market and calculates each
Page 255 and 256:
If more consumption points ,are add
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or ( 5 1) . 1. Q-14.)4 `("P)EXarg (
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4. 0 -A? 040- Net MR 1 0 so. Ira."
Page 261 and 262:
To determine the demand curve for t
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I • The above equations (1-4) wer
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(I). 1■1 (7). Id. (8). •a 0.0.1
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• goods arrive (so that Q A+Q S g
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k The optimal amounts of QA and Q s
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it has been used in economics. Basi
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An analogous relationship exists fo
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• • (11). Now a probability dis
Page 277 and 278:
--_.—..---...........AawmarA D SA
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, (1). APPENDIX TO CHAPTER III SENS
Page 281 and 282:
decreases. Proper choice of P rA (X
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products, have different cost funct
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The above data falls short of the q
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lower than air rates. It rises more
Page 289 and 290:
One of the objectives of the study
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a. Regression equation TABLE IV-1 r
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significant. 8 It was, therefore, d
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in large tonnages tend to have a lo
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T .A T ° S Highest value per pound
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. In addition, only the smallest qu
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Here the deviations are zero. The r
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certain range, the demand estimates
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expected as goods in the discrimina
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• BIBLIOGRAPHY [1] Air Cargo Maga
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[24] 2 Study of the Possibilities f
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[42] Dawson, Michael, "A Technique
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[62] Gorham, G., Sealy, K.R. 1 and
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■•■•■■•••••
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[100] Richards, Anthony, The Role o
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[120] Traffic World Marketing Study
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! i \ NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY FREIG
Page 323 and 324:
While working on this dissertation
Page 325 and 326:
BIBLIOGRAPHY Anderson, T.W. "An Int
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VITA MICHEL VINCENT BEUTHE Born in
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of cost iv iazroduced at once along
Page 331 and 332:
In the present theoretical formulat
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It is possible to generalize this m
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however, because of their nature, t
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ij xo ij ,Diagram 3, . 0 X ij of th
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equal to+ where E is the median of
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CHAPTER II Discrimination With One
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which is,.in this case, the only q
Page 345 and 346:
Notc that the first subscript of a.
Page 347 and 348:
I .' 1) (22) P 1 (X) = (25) Therefo
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(34) P 2 (X) (36) 1 = 1 a b c ' and
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CHAPTER III An Application - Corn T
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time the draft is honored by the co
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2. Critique of the Data. We must no
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made through questionnaires to coun
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we can still hope to obtain satisfa
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common and contract carriers are co
Page 363 and 364:
Table II. Rail Time Regressions: Ti
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3. The Statistical Results. After t
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Table IV gives the discriminant fun
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February non-weighed July weighed T
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the binary problems, when the choic
Page 373 and 374:
Table VII Probabilities that an obs
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Table VIII, Probability of Correct
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significantly different from the 'n
Page 379 and 380:
-X _21 5.15 L4.45 TRUCK RAIL lalm
Page 381 and 382:
CHAPTER IV. A Predictive Model of R
Page 383 and 384:
C ab /C a is smaller than one, the
Page 385 and 386:
II. Rail-Water Competition: One Por
Page 387 and 388:
Until now, no attention has been pa
Page 389 and 390:
9 ) (Z a - kZ b ) = C w /C r Zab +
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shipper. In the reality of competit
Page 393 and 394:
DIAGRAM 5 For the most interesting
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DIAGRAM 7 waterway may be numerous.
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Note the restriction of Y to its ab
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the road-water route. In (24) C t (
Page 401 and 402:
Squaring both sides, one obtains an
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interesting expressions. However, t
Page 405 and 406:
CHAPTER V. This chapter attempts to
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TOTAL . COST D = -(L r - L t ) 2 Th
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2. Two Markets Model. subject --co
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X 0, X 2 - 0. It can readily be see
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the river does not have any --, but
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:sLY: x rail 0 truck 0 rail and tru
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'NLY: K rail 0 truck 0 rail and tru
Page 419 and 420:
Table XI. Rail Rates Regressions: C
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mileages. The reason why this ratio
Page 423 and 424:
Table XIII. Boundary Equations. Wat
Page 425 and 426:
DIAGRAM 21 Figure T shows the actua
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truck sample is small ( 148 origins
Page 429 and 430:
In this application of the spatial
Page 431 and 432:
NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY LIBRARY Man
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in the dissertation. In addition, h
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Analysis of Tow in Motion 66 Introd
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Table • TABLES Statistical Result
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deepening or widening the channel,
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lines and isoquants. This locus is
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limited to the cost and production
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problem because engineers also atte
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are ignored. Making sure that the r
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variables, the form of the basic re
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family of cost curves obtained in t
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economies of scale exist in ihe tra
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in which R = resistance, in taw-rop
Page 457 and 458:
(2)marginal productivity of the boa
Page 459 and 460:
conditions are not always met in pr
Page 461 and 462:
production relationship, e.g., a ma
Page 463 and 464:
Howe's production and planning mode
Page 465 and 466:
of the barge coefficient seemed to
Page 467 and 468:
1962 counterparts. However, only (1
Page 469 and 470:
A 10 peicont increase in all inputs
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proportion of constant costs. Typic
Page 473 and 474:
In short, cost was estimated as a f
Page 475 and 476:
o f cars, etc.). Each is then multi
Page 477 and 478:
haul. The variable (Z/X) was used i
Page 479 and 480:
In the switching process--which con
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defined to be the percentage change
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other production analysis of rail i
Page 485 and 486:
of transportation, the inputs contr
Page 487 and 488:
It will be convenient to define T f
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vchicles, is considered to be a poi
Page 491 and 492:
F t (v) = B/v. 6 Therefore, the equ
Page 493 and 494:
The graphical expression of Equatio
Page 495 and 496:
And the distance traveled, D c , du
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CHAPTER IV LINEHAUL PROCESS FUNCTIO
Page 499 and 500:
Form of Process Function The proces
Page 501 and 502:
particular . trip', that tonnage ma
Page 503 and 504:
ostimated from a capacity cable for
Page 505 and 506:
The function was originaliy fit by
Page 507 and 508:
were greater than 11 miles per hour
Page 509 and 510:
effective-push functions will be ex
Page 511 and 512:
ilotilla. These assumptions will no
Page 513 and 514:
Upon testing the hypotheses indicat
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for in the first case tows were sem
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a 0 / V I HP 3000 - 12 - 225 • H
Page 519 and 520:
3.5 3.0 1.5 5.. 2.0 7, 4.0 ■•
Page 521 and 522:
A final note concerning the effect
Page 523 and 524:
predict the time required for trave
Page 525 and 526:
Given the tonnage, 0, to be carried
Page 527 and 528:
existence. For example, the locks o
Page 529 and 530:
If all locks on the waterway arc tr
Page 531 and 532:
loaded ones in 1950; therefore p is
Page 533 and 534:
T L -2; Single Double Locking Locki
Page 535 and 536:
u T L 1 Table 4.7 INDIVIDUAL AND SY
Page 537 and 538:
it would leave the system. Alternat
Page 539 and 540:
The government should incur the cos
Page 541 and 542:
I si,:e was 3.1 bares. The small av
Page 543 and 544:
To simplify the analysis all delay-
Page 545 and 546:
characteristics and delays. Therefo
Page 547 and 548:
Equation (4.37) divides the total :
Page 549 and 550:
Xore confidence may be attached to
Page 551 and 552:
Recapitulation of Tow Linehaul Proc
Page 553 and 554:
function. The difference beiween th
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S -, speed of water, in miles per h
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y the above analysis, but for more
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econoinic analysis of the rail linc
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deceleration, Equation (3.8). Moreo
Page 563 and 564:
Then the cargo weight of the ith ca
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(4, 6, or 8), the weight of the loc
Page 567 and 568:
Analysis of Train in Motion Introdu
Page 569 and 570:
and F(v) = 1.3w c + 29a 0.045w c v
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Adiustment for Grade and Curvature.
Page 573 and 574:
Curve resistance, like grade resist
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F . 0 VI Fd(v) F (v) t Fig. 5.1 --
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and (5.26), and 2-miles-per-hour sp
Page 579 and 580:
per trip into several components, e
Page 581 and 582:
N t = number of trains on a given r
Page 583 and 584:
Table 5.1 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF T
Page 585 and 586:
Each of the terms V f and C represe
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nowever, in the case of the rail li
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-, 1 9, D 0 ,- ._ 200 ! i 175 '—
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Horsepowe r ( in t hou sa n ds ) 3
Page 593 and 594:
exceeded 6,000 horsepower, for at p
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Curvatures of greater than 5 degree
Page 597 and 598:
hohavior of rail costs. First, the
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eing charged at the higher rate. Th
Page 601 and 602:
2. If train speed is greater than o
Page 603 and 604:
maximula attainable horsepower of t
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price for each locomotive unit from
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I L' is given by (0.5)($94HP L - $4
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Figure 5.4 displays a set of short-
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Economics of scale, in fact, seem t
Page 613 and 614:
Tab1e 5.8 LONG-RUN MARGINAL COST OF
Page 615 and 616:
obtained this way may then be added
Page 617 and 618:
The estimating methods for each of
Page 619 and 620:
Cos t per ton -mi le (m ;1 1s ) 7.2
Page 621 and 622:
CHAPTER VI SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
Page 623 and 624:
eached for acceleration, which take
Page 625 and 626:
wide range of output would have to
Page 627 and 628:
Isoquants between car and locomotiv
Page 629 and 630:
eported in the dissertation will in
Page 631 and 632:
10. M. Bronfenbrenner and P. H. Dou
Page 633 and 634:
13. A. V.ctor Cabot and Arthur P. H
Page 635 and 636:
7. There are in fact three differen
Page 637 and 638:
26. Eric Bottoms, "Practical Tonnag
Page 639 and 640:
19. Hay, An Introduction to Transpo
Page 641 and 642:
BIBLIOGRAPHY American Railway Engin
Page 643 and 644:
Howe, Charles M... "Methods for Equ
Page 645 and 646:
Soberman, Richard. "A Railway Perfo
Page 647 and 648:
NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY ESTIMATION
Page 649 and 650:
TABLE OF COIMETS Page Chapter I. In
Page 651 and 652:
CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION AND REVIEW O
Page 653 and 654:
On the other hand, the statistical
Page 655 and 656:
and capital Outlays are also treate
Page 657 and 658:
TABLE 1 SUMMARY ESTIMATES OF RAILRO
Page 659 and 660:
C (X) FIGURE • ■ 9
Page 661 and 662:
The effects of two types of classif
Page 663 and 664:
egression equations will produce bi
Page 665 and 666:
S = speed in miles per hour W = wid
Page 667 and 668:
(6) S = h(HP, L, B, H, D, W) The ac
Page 669 and 670:
stock which remains idle. Under the
Page 671 and 672:
The planning function also exhibite
Page 673 and 674:
Of the production functions, (13, 1
Page 675 and 676:
sources of data. Despite the use of
Page 677 and 678:
The reader should note several them
Page 679 and 680:
from variations in rates based on v
Page 681 and 682:
service the firm would want to set
Page 683 and 684:
oat output, or effort, is not propo
Page 685 and 686:
this level of disaggregation are ex
Page 687 and 688:
CHAPTER III A STATISTICAL PRODUCTIO
Page 689 and 690:
A second way of generating data inv
Page 691 and 692:
variables, even if it is not accura
Page 693 and 694:
Three major inland waterway firms p
Page 695 and 696:
from changing depth or stream flow.
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made for each. (In the log-linear r
Page 699 and 700:
•Ps Variable Name Riven Districts
Page 701 and 702:
Variable Name River Districts Port
Page 703 and 704:
La Variable Name River Districts TA
Page 705 and 706:
Variable Name River Districts TABLE
Page 707 and 708:
t..n .....1 TABLE 6 . . VARIABLE ME
Page 709 and 710:
A. Linear Regression (Arithi.etic M
Page 711 and 712:
are roughly comparable across all c
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termed "labor embodied technologica
Page 715 and 716:
TABLE 8 COMPANY ONE LINEAR REGRESSI
Page 717 and 718:
the other monthly coefficients indi
Page 719 and 720:
CHAPTER IV AN ANALYSIS OF DIRECT TO
Page 721 and 722:
with the use of dummy variables. To
Page 723 and 724:
A more direct method, and the one e
Page 725 and 726:
. cost In using; for example, , cro
Page 727 and 728:
• ,,, • .. -Excluded Variables
Page 729 and 730:
200,000 EBM per year) comes to abou
Page 731 and 732:
Form C weights have limited accurac
Page 733 and 734:
study as to the level of output to
Page 735 and 736:
The firm in the sample operates a l
Page 737 and 738:
would tend to be slightly higher co
Page 739 and 740:
3. other bulk 4. petroleum products
Page 741 and 742:
In addition, river districts with s
Page 743 and 744:
where: Cost = annual total direct b
Page 745 and 746:
1964 1965 Variable Name Barge Type
Page 747 and 748:
TABLE 13 F-TESTS FOR BARGE COST REG
Page 749 and 750:
tend to rise with increases in barg
Page 751 and 752:
ing is quite consistent with a prio
Page 753 and 754:
TABLE 16 PERCENT COMMODITY REGRESSI
Page 755 and 756:
arge was to ship one more commodity
Page 757 and 758:
1 are the costs of operating and ma
Page 759 and 760:
preparation of barges is necessary
Page 761 and 762:
estimated was the same for all thre
Page 763 and 764:
TABLE 17 DIRECT BARGE EXPENSE r 2 =
Page 765 and 766:
Variable Name TABLE 19 TERMINAL EXP
Page 767 and 768:
considerable growth in the past twe
Page 769 and 770:
also be used in conjunction with di
Page 771 and 772:
to an already scheduled tow). Two k
Page 773 and 774:
The terminal results are quite tent
Page 775 and 776:
The five firms in the sample repres
Page 777 and 778:
sure the extent of this activity, a
Page 779 and 780:
1 linear form of- the functions hav
Page 781 and 782:
C. Net Tons of Barge Capacity TABLE
Page 783 and 784:
Indirect cost is the same for towbo
Page 785 and 786:
A. Total Horsepower TABLE 22 CROSS
Page 787 and 788:
1 .‘ A. Total Horsepower TABLE 23
Page 789 and 790:
to scheduling. In addition, we obse
Page 791 and 792:
:CHAPTER VII SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION
Page 793 and 794:
the coefficients of the dummy varia
Page 795 and 796:
. The coefficients of the dummy var
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Supporting results for neutral tech
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port agencies. A considerable amoun
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I to inland waterway operators, sin
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Footnotes--Continued 7 Howe, Jan.,
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Footnotes--Continued This is also w
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Bibliography--Continued Interstate
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UNCLASSIFIED Security Classificatio
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Q2 Z2,(Q2) Z2(Q2) - Institute for Water Resources - U.S. Army

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