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Q2 Z2,(Q2) Z2(Q2) - Institute for Water Resources - U.S. Army

Q2 Z2,(Q2) Z2(Q2) - Institute for Water Resources - U.S. Army

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The Statistical Model<br />

A statistical cost function has been estimated with the above<br />

described data. The <strong>for</strong>m of the function is:<br />

20<br />

loa Cost/EBM =<br />

°10<br />

log io a o + a l log ioHF + a2 log 10 EBM + a 3KN + E B.R +<br />

i=1<br />

.<br />

3 5 4<br />

E y.A. + E 6,C, + E A n y n<br />

j=1 J k=1 1' L=1<br />

where: Cost = annual total direct towboat cost <strong>for</strong> each boat .<br />

EBM = Equivalent Barge Miles produced by each boat in each year<br />

'BF = towboat horsepower<br />

KN = Kort nozzle dummy variable (1 = presence of Kort nozzles)<br />

R .<br />

= percent time towboat operated on ith river district<br />

(Lower Illinois excluded)<br />

A = dummy variables <strong>for</strong> towboat age (A1 = 1 indicates the tow-<br />

boat was built prior to 1050. 1960-1965 excluded)<br />

C k = dummy variables <strong>for</strong> each company<br />

y = dummy variables <strong>for</strong> year (Y 1 = 1 is 1962, etc., 1966 ex-<br />

cluded)<br />

In many regression models in econpmics, economic theory does not<br />

indicate the correct specification of the function to be estimated.<br />

Frequently, however, statistical theory indicates a choice. One model<br />

may be preferred in particular circumstances because it avoids statis-<br />

tical biases which may occur due to the nature of the data. One example<br />

of this is the choice between the total and average functional <strong>for</strong>ms<br />

<strong>for</strong> cost estimation.<br />

74

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