Trade and Employment From Myths to Facts - International Labour ...

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Chapter 1: Introduction: Towards a coherent trade and employment policy Kletzer, L.G. 2001. Job loss from imports: Measuring the costs (Washington, DC, Institute for International Economics). Kumhof, M.; Rancière, R. 2010. “Inequality, leverage and crises”, IMF Working Paper WP/10/268. Kwame Sundaram, J.; von Arnim, R. 2008. “Economic liberalization and contraints to development in Sub-Saharan Africa”, DESA Working Paper No. 67. McMillan, M.; Rodrik, D. 2011. “Trade, employment structure and structural transformation”, in M. Bacchetta; M. Jansen (eds): Making globalization socially sustainable (Geneva, ILO-WTO co-publication, forthcoming). Melitz, M.J. 2003. “The impact of trade on intra-industry reallocations and aggregate industry productivity”, in Econometrica, Vol. 71, No. 6, pp. 1695-1725, Nov. Menezes-Filho, N.A.; Muendler, M.A. 2007. “Labor reallocation in response to trade reform”, CESifo Working Paper No. 1936. Milberg, W.; Winkler, D. 2011. “Offshoring and economic insecurity: Worker perceptions and labor market realities”, in M. Bacchetta; M. Jansen (eds): Making globalization socially sustainable (Geneva, ILO-WTO co-publication, forthcoming). Muendler, M.A. 2010. “Trade reform, employment allocation and worker flows”, in G. Porto; B.M. Hoekman (eds): Trade adjustment costs in developing countries: Impacts, determinants and policy responses (World Bank and CEPR). Mussa, M. 1978. “Dynamic adjustment in the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson model”, in Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 86, No. 5, pp. 775-791. Gaston, N.; Trefler, D. 1997. “The labour market consequences of the Canada-US free trade agreement”, in Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol. 30, No. 1, pp. 18-41. OECD; ILO; World Bank; WTO. 2010. Seizing the benefits of trade for employment and growth, Final report prepared for submission to the G-20 summit meeting, Seoul (Korea), 11-12 Nov. 2010. Paci, P.; Revenga, A.; Rijkers B. 2009. “Coping with crises: Why and how to protect employment and earnings”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 5094. Salazar-Xirinachs, J.M. comments on: Cimoli, M.; Dosi, G.; Stiglitz, J.E. 2010. “Industrial policy and development: The political economy of capabilities accumulation”, 22 Feb. 2010 at South Centre, Geneva. Woessmann, L. 2011. “Education policies to make globalization more inclusive”, in M. Bacchetta; M. Jansen (eds): Making globalization socially sustainable (Geneva, ILO-WTO co-publication, forthcoming). WTO. 2006. World Trade Report 2006: Exploring the links between subsidies, trade and the WTO. WTO. 2008. International Trade Statistics 2008. 21
NEW EVIDENCE ON TRADE AND EMPLOYMENT: AN OVERVIEW 2.1 INTRODUCTION By Margaret McMillan 1 and Íñigo Verduzco 2 In 1983, Anne O. Krueger, completed three volumes titled Trade and Employment in Developing Countries for the National Bureau of Economic Research. In Volume 3, “Synthesis and Conclusions”, she writes: “Everyone agrees that unemployment is a ‘problem’ and that increased employment opportunities are an ‘objective’ in most LDCs. Employment and employment growth are major points of concern in virtually all of them. There is less agreement, however, on the nature and cause of the ‘problem’ and on why employment creation is desirable.” Strip away the dates from these volumes and one would be hard pressed to guess whether the volumes were written today or 30 years ago. For example, the official unemployment rates presented in table 2.1 indicate that unemployment in developing countries is much higher today than it was in the 1980s. Moreover, the numbers in table 2.1 almost certainly understate unemployment in these countries since they typically do not include those who choose not to participate in the workforce. 2 1 The authors would like to thank Dani Rodrik, Bill Gibson, and the editors of this book for comments and suggestions. We would also like to thank participants in the Expert Meeting on Assessing and Addressing the Effects of Trade on Employment organized by the EU and ILO for their comments. 2 For example, the World Bank’s report “Economic Growth, Employment Generation and Poverty Reduction in Nigeria” 2009 points out that a common problem in the African context is that all those who do not seek work because they feel that there is no work available are likely to be classified as economically inactive. As a result, official unemployment numbers are sometimes quite low. 23
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APPPENDIX 3.A: TABLES Chapter 3: As
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TRADE AND THE INFORMAL ECONOMY 4.1
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GENDER ASPECTS OF TRADE 5.1 INTRODU
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REFERENCES Chapter 5: Gender aspect
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