Trade and Employment From Myths to Facts - International Labour ...

Trade and Employment: From Myths to Facts
2.4 Can governments influence the relationship
between trade and employment? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
2.4.1 Land Grab? The race for the world’s farmland. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
2.4.2 FDI inflows and development: The case of Africa . . . . . . . . . . . 53
2.5 Policy implications and directions for future research . . . . . . . . . . 55
3. Assessing the Impact of Trade on Employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
Bill Gibson
3.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
3.2 Assessing the employment effects of trade: Main challenges . . . . . 63
3.2.1 Trade, productivity and employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
3.2.2 Taking into account wage effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
3.2.3 Which methodology? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
3.2.4 Overcoming implementation obstacles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
3.3 Assessing the employment impact of trade:
Simulation methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
3.3.1 Factor content and partial equilibrium methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
3.3.2 Two-sector factor substitution models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
3.3.3 Input-output framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
3.3.4 Social accounting matrices and computable
general equilibrium models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
3.3.5 Comparing different simulation methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
3.4 Assessing the employment impacts of trade:
Econometric methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
3.4.1 Trade and sectoral employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
3.4.2 Trade and wages of skilled and unskilled workers . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
3.4.3 Trade, productivity and employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
3.5 Assessing the employment impacts of trade:
Qualitative methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
3.6 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
4. Trade and the Informal Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
Anushree Sinha
4.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
4.2 The concept of the informal economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
4.3 The informal economy and the relationship
between trade and informality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
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