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supplier. It is a major strategic issue and a potential challenge, which can only be compared in this
sense with the Islamic world, and has to be approached strategically. The EU decision-makers’ primary
task should, perhaps, not be to prepare documents for the next summit, but to offer a long-term
normative vision of where the EU would like to approach Russia over time and start acting according
to that goal. In other words, the policy should be pro-active, not reactive.
The concern over Russia’s continuing de-democratization has to be fi rmly approached and
tabled during all negotiations. As a Russian commentator put it, the EU (and the USA) should say
what they mean and mean what they say10 . Democracy in Russia is much more vital for the EU than it
is often thought. In the modern world political democracy and the rule of law are key components of
success. So, if democratization fails in Russia, the EU may one day fi nd itself living next door to the
“Siberian Nigeria” - a state, rich with resources, but full of social diseases and producing enormous
soft security challenges for its neighbours. Also, by staying confi dent that democracy can grow in
Russia rather than by implicitly treating Russia as a “hopeless case”, the EU may gradually undermine
the background for the “Othering” of Russia, which will be a precondition for building something
genuinely common.
European countries and the EU as a whole have to restore self-confi dence as to their position
in the energy equation. This is partly a merely psychological task. With oil being a global commodity,
nuclear energy available, alternative fuel research promising and energy-saving technologies waiting
to be implemented, there are absolutely no reasons for the panic over either the shortage of energy
supply as such or the potentially growing dependence on Russia. But it is partly a matter of the right
policies. To alleviate the concerns of some individual states, it does make sense to accelerate the
work on creating the common European energy market and to curb the egoism of large national
monopolies. To feel more secure altogether, diversifi cation of import should fi nally leave the
discussion stage.
The policy of the EU in the common neighbourhood should become more active, than the case
has been up to now. If countries like Ukraine and, later on, Belarus successfully complete their own
transition, this will positively infl uence the prospect of Russia’s transformation. If they fail, the failure
of the transition in Russia will be extremely likely. The door to the EU membership for these countries
10 The actual quotation goes on saying ”…avoid large gaps between what you say in private and what you say before cameras
at summits”. D. Trenin. “Reading Russia Right”. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Policy Brief. Special Edition 42,
October 2005, p.10.