Cykling, motion, miljø og sundhed - Thomas Krag

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prioritized, but at the same time all government funds to promote cycling were cancelled. And no compensation has been given. Cost-benefit analyses of cycling Norway, Finland, Switzerland, Great Britain and Canada, have all carried out cost-benefit calculations of physical exercise in general or increased cycling in particular. In these analyses, the large-scale economical benefits of health improvements have been of special interest. The Nordic Council of Ministers is also preparing a similar analysis. These analyses all speak the same language: when all relevant factors, including the effect on national health, are taken into account, investment in cycling turns out to be very profitable. Health has so far – until the present report - not been taken into account in any Danish economical analysis of traffic. Analyses of traffic projects have only focused on private and public motor vehicle transportation, and have thus ignored the possible consequences such projects might have for pedestrians and bicyclists. To analyze effects on health is a complicated task. One can add up the expenses saved in the health sector and the benefits of fewer days of absence due to illness. But it is harder to put a price on a lower mortality rate, and one may question whether it is morally or ethically justifiable to attempt to do so. However, such estimations are already made in the above-mentioned economical analyses of investments in car roads and public transportation. Therefore, we have chosen to do the same thing (in line with the reports from other countries) with respect to walking and cycling. We have studied whether investments in cycling are profitable when held against other traffic investments. Large socio-economical benefits from increased cycling We have used The Danish Ministry of Transport's manual on socio-economic analyses to investigate the economical consequences of large-scale investment in cycle-initiatives. The study supposes a funding of 150 million DKK (20,3 million Euro) every year, over a period of 12 years – presupposing that this will stimulate the inhabitants of cities with a population exceeding 5,000 to cycle as much as the people in Copenhagen do. However, the study experienced difficulties in getting Danish figures concerning potential economical benefits of increased physical activity. We therefore chose to use figures from other countries. A provisional calculation indicates, however, that Danish figures would be of roughly the same size. Investments in cycle-initiatives turn out to have a very good profit and cost-benefit ratio, much better, in fact, than what one would normally expect from economical analyses of traffic projects. The result seen over a 50 years timescale is a net present value of 23 billion DKK (3.1 billion Euro), a benefit cost relation of 1.35 and an internal rate of return of 66%, which means very positive. The health improvements alone have a net present value of 20 billion DKK (2.7 billion Euro). The results of the calculations are quite robust against changes of the assumptions behind the calculations. So in spite of substantial uncertainties concerning the involved parameters, the result is strikingly positive. Surprisingly the projects' impact on public expenses due to reduced tax-revenue on cars and fuel and reduced revenue from public transport fares are much higher than the investment in bicycle infrastructure and campaigning. The results are robust towards changes of direct investment in bicycle infrastructure and campaigning and the effects from this, while the value of the health and consumer advantages has a larger influence, together with the relationship between car, public transport, walking, and bicycling. - 14 -
The results are robust towards changes of direct investment in bicycle infrastructure and campaigning and the effects from this, while the value of the health and consumer advantages has a larger influence, together with the relationship between car, public transport, walking, and bicycling. Cities with special cycle-initiatives In addition to all this, we have described 9 cases – three concerning Danish cities/regions, and 6 concerning foreign cities/regions – where special initiatives have been taken to promote cycling. The case studies show that there are many different factors that may successfully contribute to increasing cycling. Among these are: • A strong political commitment to increase cycling • Enthusiastic and committed civil servants and officials who can support concrete projects with political accept • The existence of regional funding or road user charge funds that can finance local cycleinitiatives • The implementation of concrete plans, and long term commitment to these plans Moreover, focus on cycling, as a means to reduce both traffic congestion and health problems seems to be increasing. Improving traffic safety is not the main argument anymore for engaging in the issue of cycling. Recommendations In light of the analyses it is recommended that: • Cycling must have higher priority in campaigns promoting physical exercise for children and adults. • The Ministry of Traffic together with The Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Environmental Affairs must be involved in the realization of projects to increase physical exercise. • A concrete plan must be formulated, detailing how children can be urged to cycle more. This must include tightening traffic regulations and speed control near schools, sports centers, and other places frequented by children. • A plan must be formulated to reduce air pollution, especially in the form of ultra fine particles, in cities, in order to provide a safer environment for the cyclists. • National funding must be reintroduced. These funds should be earmarked, so that municipalities interested in running cycle campaigns, developing bicycle infrastructure, and improving safety can apply for financial resources to do so. • Cycling campaigns and communication of knowledge on how cycling can be increased should be centrally coordinated. • Danish calculations must be made of the economical benefits of increasing physical exercise, including cycling. • Future economical analyses concerning traffic should include effects on cycling and walking, and indirect consequences for public health. Such calculations should also influence whether traffic projects are prioritized in governmental strategies concerning the environment. - 15 -
Page 1 and 2: Cykling, motion, miljø og sundhed
Page 3 and 4: 6.5 Finland 65 6.6 USA, Australien
Page 5 and 6: Indledning Formålet med denne rapp
Page 7 and 8: Det kan være svært at indplacere
Page 9 and 10: Analyser af sundhedsmæssige effekt
Page 11 and 12: Conclusions and Recommendations Mor
Page 13: Research shows that the risk of acc
Page 17 and 18: mere motion, før det hjælper, hvi
Page 19 and 20: Figur 1.2 - 19 - Figur 1.2. Forekom
Page 21 and 22: har vi valgt at regne med den brede
Page 23 and 24: anses for mest realistisk og er let
Page 25 and 26: selv mere for at nå op på det nø
Page 27 and 28: lidt fysisk aktive, at drenges fysi
Page 29 and 30: 2. Cykling og luftforurening 2.1 Lu
Page 31 and 32: Spørgsmålet er derfor ikke kun, o
Page 33 and 34: 3. Cykling og ulykker 3.1 Mange cyk
Page 35 and 36: - 35 - Figur 3.4. Cykeltrafik og cy
Page 37 and 38: - 37 - Figur 3.9. København 1990-2
Page 39 and 40: Spørgsmålet om den dalende cykelt
Page 41 and 42: Indretningen af trafiksystemet hand
Page 43 and 44: 4.3 Separate stisystemer kan ikke s
Page 45 and 46: 5. Brug af cykel - og årsager til
Page 47 and 48: Figur 5.4. Cykling som funktion af
Page 49 and 50: Figur 5.7. Årsager til valg af tra
Page 51 and 52: - 51 - Figur 5.11. Deltagere i proj
Page 53 and 54: givetvis også en negativ symbolvæ
Page 55 and 56: 5.6 Gode eksempler på indsatser re
Page 57 and 58: • kampagne- og informationsvirkso
Page 59 and 60: imod at udføre sammenligningerne p
Page 61 and 62: andre studier, som har anvendt 5-6%
Page 63 and 64: TØI anvendte i deres pointberegnin
Page 65 and 66:
En undersøgelse anslår, at hvis 1
Page 67 and 68:
Denne mangel på helhedssyn kan væ
Page 69 and 70:
Norge 1 Schweiz 2 , direkte omk. Sc
Page 71 and 72:
Der bor godt 3,3 millioner i egentl
Page 73 and 74:
Betragtet under ét står gang i ø
Page 75 and 76:
esværligt og tager længere tid. S
Page 77 and 78:
7.9 Projektets investering Til proj
Page 79 and 80:
Der er ikke i nøgletalskataloget a
Page 81 and 82:
og på den anden side at lægge de
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norske myndigheder at have 80.000 p
Page 85 and 86:
Projektomkostninger og - gevinster
Page 87 and 88:
7.19 Følsomhedsanalyse Bilag 1, af
Page 89 and 90:
udpege nogle faktorer, der har gjor
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9. Målsætninger for aktiv transpo
Page 93 and 94:
Rapporten peger bl.a. på følgende
Page 95 and 96:
Regeringen har i 2004 igangsat kamp
Page 97 and 98:
instruktører i cykling. Der er så
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højere skattebetalingsevne i en l
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Noter: 1 Haapanen-Niemi et al: The
Page 103 and 104:
54 H. Wahrlich: Fahren Sie nicht me
Page 105 and 106:
social- og sundhedshjælpere, iflg.
Page 107:
166 Nøgletalskatalog - til brug fo
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Cykling, motion, miljø og sundhed - Thomas Krag

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