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EBITDA of US$ 9.5 billion, before<br />

synergies. In 2006, the combined<br />

company’s alumina capacity would<br />

have been 21.5 million tonnes and<br />

its aluminium capacity would have<br />

been 7.8 million tonnes. In addition,<br />

the combined company would have<br />

188,000 employees in 67 countries.<br />

The transaction is subject to review<br />

by antitrust authorities in various jurisdictions<br />

including the U.S., Canada,<br />

the European Union, Australia and<br />

Brazil. It also requires foreign invest-<br />

ALUMINIUM · 6/2007<br />

ment clearance in Canada, France and<br />

Australia.<br />

“With the changing dynamics of<br />

our industry over the past <strong>de</strong>ca<strong>de</strong>,<br />

we firmly believe that a combination<br />

of the two companies will enhance<br />

our future competitiveness against<br />

increasingly formidable competitors<br />

from around the world. During our<br />

discussions with Alcan last fall, we<br />

explored the regulatory implications<br />

of a combination of the two companies<br />

and our ability to address any po-<br />

Alcoa to take over Alcan: some remarks<br />

Rudolf P. Pawlek<br />

Following the above mentioned Alcoa statement, we<br />

must ask: what drives Alcoa to take over Alcan?<br />

Alcoa is fighting for its in<strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>nce as it risks itself<br />

being swallowed by Russian, Chinese, Indian or Middle<br />

East competitors. Also the far larger mining giants BHP<br />

Billiton and Rio Tinto, both London-based, were revealed<br />

in February to have each worked up feasibility plans for<br />

an Alcoa takeover.<br />

Alcoa is making much of its commitment to Alcan’s<br />

Canadian operations and is proposing to split its headquarters<br />

between New York and Montreal. Montreal<br />

would have to become the hub of the merged entity’s<br />

primary metal operations to avoid losing C$ 500 million<br />

in interest free loans and tax concessions from the<br />

Quebec government.<br />

Alcoa is vulnerable because, <strong>de</strong>spite doubling in<br />

world aluminium prices in the past years, the company’s<br />

share price has stagnated. And that is due to chronic un<strong>de</strong>rperformance<br />

in the downstream segments of Alcoa’s<br />

business, the fabrication of aluminium into everything<br />

from auto parts to beverage cans.<br />

With the masterstroke of buying Alcan, which had<br />

been an Alcoa subsidiary until U.S. antitrust authorities<br />

forced a separation of the two companies in 1928, Alcoa<br />

would achieve three strategic advantages: Firstly with 8<br />

million tpy of primary aluminium capacity the combined<br />

company would again be world lea<strong>de</strong>r, well ahead of US<br />

Rusal’s 4 million tpy capacity; secondly, the enlarged Alcoa<br />

might be too big for BHP or Rio to swallow; thirdly,<br />

in meeting anti-monopoly regulations, Alcoa has an opportunity<br />

to divest some un<strong>de</strong>r-performing downstream<br />

operations from beverage cans to aerospace products.<br />

Given that Alcoa and Alcan could not come to a meeting<br />

of minds after two years of discussions about some<br />

kind of combination, the firms are not quite the natural<br />

fit that Belda claimed in his statement above.<br />

And going hostile raises the likelihood of Alcan turning<br />

to BHP, Rio Tinto or another white knight bid<strong>de</strong>r.<br />

That would leave Alcoa even further diminished in size<br />

relative to its major rivals, and even more exposed to<br />

ECONOMICS<br />

tential issues a regulator might raise.<br />

We believe that any antitrust issues<br />

raised by an Alcoa-Alcan combination<br />

can be solved through targeted<br />

divestitures and by proactively working<br />

with regulators to address competitive<br />

concerns. We plan to move<br />

expeditiously to address these issues<br />

in or<strong>de</strong>r to close this transaction at<br />

the earliest possible date,” said Mr.<br />

Belda.<br />

Alcoa is targeting completion of<br />

the transaction by the end of 2007. �<br />

the predations of whichever Alcan bid<strong>de</strong>rs do not succeed<br />

in nabbing that prize. In<strong>de</strong>ed BHP and Rio Tinto<br />

may already be taking the wraps off their Alcoa takeover<br />

plans.<br />

Alcoa is confi<strong>de</strong>nt it will receive regulatory approval<br />

for its hostile bid to buy its Canadian rival Alcan, and<br />

is prepared to divest parts of its aerospace and automotive<br />

businesses in several countries in or<strong>de</strong>r to do so. �<br />

Stand: 3C17<br />

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