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Vol. 53 - Alaska Resources Library and Information Services

Vol. 53 - Alaska Resources Library and Information Services

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8.4). During summer <strong>and</strong> fall, oil from spills in the St. George Basin<br />

would be moved by prevailing winds east over the middle shelf <strong>and</strong> south<br />

to the North Aleutian Shelf coast at Unimak Isl<strong>and</strong> eastward for 200 km.<br />

In the winter, oil would be transported northwest <strong>and</strong> in both cases a<br />

spill would cover about 250 km 2 after 10 days.<br />

Most significantly, the<br />

rate of movement in summer is predicted to be about 8.5 km/day, much<br />

faster than the net current transport of crab larvae along the NAS which<br />

would be about 1.7-3.4 km/day.<br />

An oil spill in space <strong>and</strong> time that folows<br />

peak larval hatch could, theoretically, overtake a portion of the<br />

population even if initially some distance removed. However, extensive<br />

distribution of the larval population (e.g., Tanner crab) <strong>and</strong><br />

dilution/volatilization of the oil might shield the year-class from<br />

extensive losses.<br />

8.5.2 King Crab Larvae<br />

As shown in Section 3.0, there are very few larvae of Paralithodes<br />

spp. over the St. George Basin, <strong>and</strong> consequently even an extensive oil<br />

disaster that is confined to the area between 100 m <strong>and</strong> 200 m would have<br />

no foreseeable effect on king crab populations.<br />

However, it is most<br />

probable that an enormous spill or blowout at numerous points within the<br />

lease sale area or along future tanker routes from St. George Basin, <strong>and</strong><br />

certainly a spill along the NAS would be spread to areas critical for<br />

larval king crab development.<br />

Blue king crab (P. platypus) <strong>and</strong> its fishery are centered about the<br />

Pribilof Isl<strong>and</strong>s.<br />

The R<strong>and</strong> model of transport <strong>and</strong> fate of oil following<br />

a spill in the St. George Basin shows that winter-spring trajectories<br />

821

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