Engineering: issues, challenges and opportunities for development ...

ENGINEERING: ISSUES CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR DEVELOPMENTFigure 1: BAU emissions and stabilization trajectories for 450–550ppm CO 2eGlobal Emissions (GtCO2e)100908070605040302010Source: Stern Review50GtCO 2 e65GtCO 2 e70GtCO 2 e450ppm CO 2 e500ppm CO 2 e (falling to450ppm CO 2 e in 2150)550ppm CO 2 eBusiness as Usual02000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100The key to the economic impact of an ambitious approach toemissions reduction is to achieve a balance in the timing ofthe emissions peak and the corresponding requirement for atailing off of emissions annually. The challenge is the range ofcombinations of ‘peaks’ and corresponding ‘tails’ (i.e. trajectories)that may deliver a given stabilization level, especiallywhen considering that each trajectory will have a differentimpact on the economy. A late peak will allow short-termreduction levels to be relaxed but will then require a greaterlevel of annual sustained reduction to meet the overall target.An early peak will require a rapid short-term reduction level,but these efforts will be rewarded by a lower level of requiredsustained annual reductions.Australian Professor Alan Pears from the Royal MelbourneInstitute of Technology explains, ‘[Greenhouse Gas] Emissionreduction sounds like a daunting prospect, and manypeople imagine that we will have to freeze in the dark, shutdown industry, and face misery. But remember, we don’t haveto slash greenhouse gas emissions in a couple of years – weare expected to phase in savings over decades. This allowsus to take advantage of the fact that most energy producingor using equipment, from fridges and computers to cars andpower stations, has to be replaced every 5 to 30 years. So wecan minimize costs by making sure that, when old equipmentis replaced, low greenhouse-impact alternatives are installed.For example, by 2020, most of Australia ‘s coal-fired powerstations will be more than thirty years old, and they will haveto be re-built or replaced; renewable energy, cogeneration andhigh efficiency energy supply technologies (such as fuel cells)could replace them.’ 18The risk is that if the peak is too soon it may have significantimpacts on our ability to maintain gradual reductions, andif the peak is too late the corresponding annual reductionsmay be too much for the economy to bear. As the SternReview points out, ‘Given that it is likely to be difficult toreduce emissions faster than around 3 per cent per year,this emphasizes the importance of urgent action now toslow the growth of global emissions, and therefore lowerthe peak.’ 19The benefit of using stabilization trajectories as the basis forinforming a transition in the engineering profession is so wecan capitalize on the already abundant opportunities forshort-term reductions to achieve the peak, while also buildingthe experience and economies of scale to seriously tacklethe issue of sustained reductions. The beauty of the sustainedreductions model is that it allows an economy to stage theactivities it undertakes to allow for certain industries to begiven more time, or ‘head room’ to respond as the industriesthat can make short and medium term gains contribute toachieving the average overall reduction, potentially rewardedthrough an emissions trading scheme or other financialmechanism. When considering each country’s role in the globalcommunity the situation becomes more complex: effortsacross the economy of a country will need to be aggregatedto deliver the annual reductions overall; and internationalefforts need to be aggregated across countries to achievethe global stabilization curve. The Garnaut Interim Report, a2008 economic analysis for Australia, presented a number ofcountry specific trajectory curves based on per capita emissionsthat could be aggregated to achieve the overall globalstabilization trajectory.It is widely agreed that expecting the rapidly developingcountries of China and India to halt their use of fossil fuel consumptionis unreasonable considering that the United States,Australia and other developed countries have capitalized onfossil fuels for decades to underpin their development. Thestrength of the model proposed by Professor Garnaut, andthe main reason for our support of it, is that it provides headroom for both China and India to develop. Moreover, if allcountries follow their per capita curves this may actually makea global transition to stabilization a reality, considering that18 Smith, M. and Hargroves, K. 2006. The First Cuts Must be the Deepest, CSIRO ECOS,Issue 128, Dec–Jan. pp. 8–11.19 Stern, N. 2006. The Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change, Cambridge UniversityPress, Cambridge. Available at http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/sternreview_summary.htm(Accessed: 5 May 2010).60