Local mitigation strategy (LMS) - Volusia County Government

SECTION 6: VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTestimated losses produced by HAZUS-MH as compared to total HAZUS-MH building inventory was usedto estimate percent damage. The percent damage ratio was then applied to the local assessed values ofeach jurisdiction to estimate potential losses and loss ratios in Volusia County for this analysis.Figure 6.1: Conceptual Model of HAZUS-MH Methodology6.3 Statistical Risk Assessment MethodologyThe statistical risk assessment approach was applied to analyze hazards of concern that were outside thescope of HAZUS-MH and the GIS-based risk assessment. This methodology uses a statistical approach andmathematical modeling of risk to predict a hazard’s frequency of occurrence and estimated impactsbased on recorded or historic damage information. This methodology was used to assess risk to theextreme temperatures, hail, tornado, winter storm and drought hazards. Available historical data foreach hazard was used and statistical evaluations were performed. The general steps used in the statisticalrisk assessment methodology are summarized below:1. Compile data from local, state and national sources, as well as literature;2. Clean up data, including removal of duplicate records and update losses to account forinflation;3. Identify patterns in frequency, intensity, vulnerability and loss4. Statistically and probabilistically extrapolate the patterns; and5. Produce meaningful results, including the development of annualized loss estimates.Figure 6.2 illustrates a conceptual model of the statistical risk assessment methodology as applied to theVolusia County area.Volusia County Multi-jurisdictional Local Mitigation StrategyFebruary 20106:4