Local mitigation strategy (LMS) - Volusia County Government

SECTION 6: VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT6.6 LIGHTNINGAs it cannot be predicted where lightning may strike, all existing and future buildings, facilities andpopulations in Volusia County are considered to be exposed to this hazard and could potentially beimpacted. It is important to note that only reported lightning strikes have been factored into thisvulnerability assessment 4 .To estimate losses due to lightning, NCDC historical lightning loss data for occurrences in the County wereused to develop a lightning stochastic model. In this model: Losses were scaled for inflation; Average historic lightning damageability was used to generate losses for historical lightningevents where losses were not reported; Expected annualized losses were calculated through a non-linear regression of historical data;and Probabilistic losses were scaled to account for would-be losses where no exposure/instrumentwas present at the time of the event.Table 6.6 shows total exposure and potential annualized property losses and percent loss ratios resultingfrom the lightning hazard for Volusia County. Based on local knowledge, emergency managers in VolusiaCounty are aware that approximately 4,000 lightning strikes occur each week during summer afternoonthunderstorms. Although, the annualized losses from lightning in Volusia County are low, the probabilityand frequency are high. Therefore, it is anticipated that lightning will continue to threaten life and poseproperty damage throughout the county.4 It is possible that additional lightning strikes may have occurred since 1950 that were not reported to NCDC and are not accounted for in thisanalysis.Volusia County Multi-jurisdictional Local Mitigation StrategyFebruary 20106:16