Local mitigation strategy (LMS) - Volusia County Government

SECTION 6: VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT6.9 TORNADOHistorical evidence shows that Volusia County is vulnerable to tornadic activity. This hazard can resultfrom severe thunderstorm activity or may occur during a major tropical storm or hurricane. Since itcannot be predicted where a tornado may touch down, all existing and future buildings, facilities andpopulations are considered to be exposed to this hazard and could potentially be impacted. It isimportant to note that only reported tornadoes have been factored into this vulnerability assessment 7 .To estimate losses due to tornadoes, NCDC historical tornado loss data for occurrences in the Countywere used to develop a tornado stochastic model. In this model: Losses were scaled for inflation; Average historic tornado damageability was used to generate losses for historical tornadic eventswhere losses were not reported; Expected annualized losses were calculated through a non-linear regression of historical data;and Probabilistic losses were scaled to account for would-be losses where no exposure/instrumentwas present at the time of the event.Table 6.9 shows total exposure and potential annualized property losses and percent loss ratios resultingfrom the tornado hazard for Volusia County. Although, the annualized losses from tornadoes vary inVolusia County, the probability and frequency are high for tornadic activity is high throughout theCounty. Therefore, it is anticipated that tornadoes will continue to threaten life and pose propertydamage throughout the County.7 It is possible that additional tornado events may have occurred since 1950 that were not reported to NCDC and are not accountedfor in this analysis.Volusia County Multi-jurisdictional Local Mitigation StrategyFebruary 20106:22