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Operational Plan for the Restoration of Diadromous Fishes to the ...

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lakes fisheries: a general review and proposal.” 2005. Draft Discussion paper at IAGLR (International<br />

Association <strong>for</strong> Great Lakes Research), University <strong>of</strong> Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.<br />

1. Define <strong>the</strong><br />

problem<br />

2. Identify<br />

manageme<br />

a. Identify core values related management objectives, including risk<br />

aversion levels<br />

b. Identify fundamental management objectives (ecological, learning,<br />

social)<br />

c. Identify key indica<strong>to</strong>rs or per<strong>for</strong>mance criteria<br />

d. Identify key uncertainties (uncertain states <strong>of</strong> nature)<br />

e. Develop qualitative or quantitative hypo<strong>the</strong>ses <strong>for</strong> key uncertainties<br />

f. Assign prior probabilities <strong>for</strong> hypo<strong>the</strong>ses<br />

a. Identify management alternatives<br />

b. Predict (calculate) <strong>the</strong> outcomes <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> alternatives<br />

nt options<br />

3. Select a. Select an alternative or select competing hypo<strong>the</strong>ses explaining a key<br />

manageme uncertainty<br />

nt option b. State <strong>the</strong> “value <strong>of</strong> learning” expectation <strong>for</strong> this alternative<br />

4. Design<br />

manageme<br />

nt plan<br />

5. Design<br />

moni<strong>to</strong>ring<br />

plan<br />

6. Implement<br />

manageme<br />

a. Design implementation plan <strong>for</strong> selected alternative Or <strong>to</strong> test<br />

competing hypo<strong>the</strong>ses<br />

a. Specify logistics, ef<strong>for</strong>t, and documentation <strong>for</strong> moni<strong>to</strong>ring plan<br />

b. State <strong>the</strong> accuracy, precision, and power analyses<br />

c. Establish data management (data standards, training, QA/QC)<br />

d. Design data analyses (graphs, tables, statistical)<br />

a. Follow <strong>the</strong> implementation plan <strong>for</strong> chosen alternative<br />

b. Report implementation deviations<br />

nt plan<br />

7. Moni<strong>to</strong>r a. Follow moni<strong>to</strong>ring plan<br />

manageme b. Document and report deviations from moni<strong>to</strong>ring plan<br />

nt plan c. Report if moni<strong>to</strong>ring plan objective was achieved<br />

8. Evaluate<br />

results<br />

9. Refine <strong>the</strong><br />

problem<br />

a. Compare predicted verses observed results<br />

b. Report significance <strong>of</strong> difference<br />

c. Assign updated (posterior) probabilities <strong>to</strong> hypo<strong>the</strong>ses<br />

d. Report how uncertainty has been reduced (what has been learned).<br />

a. Re-Identify fundamental management objectives (ecological, learning,<br />

social)<br />

b. Re-Identify key indica<strong>to</strong>rs or per<strong>for</strong>mance criteria<br />

c. Re-Identify key uncertainties (uncertain states <strong>of</strong> nature)<br />

d. Re-Develop qualitative or quantitative hypo<strong>the</strong>ses <strong>for</strong> key<br />

uncertainties in s<strong>to</strong>cking<br />

e. Re-Assign prior probabilities <strong>for</strong> hypo<strong>the</strong>ses<br />

10. Iterate a. Return <strong>to</strong> #2 and repeat process<br />

PRFP Page 163

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