Final Report Lot 9: Public street lighting - Amper

IRF cooperation with international institutions such as Eurostat and Afristat, and the UN
Economic Commissions for Europe and for Africa." (IRF 50 , 2006).
The questionnaires which was sent out to among others CIE (the Expert inquiry) to gather
information on the use/application of street lighting in (the different countries of) Europe was
sent to ERF together with the question if they have an explanation for the differences between
their reported road infrastructure statistics and Eurostat. Until now neither the questionnaire
nor an answer to this question was received.
Our proposal is to work with the official reported figures for road length in Eurostat when these
do not differ more than 10% with the figures reported in the “Annual Bulletin of Transport
Statistics for Europe and North-America” of The Economic Commission for Europe of the
United Nations. In case neither Eurostat nor the UN Economic Commission for Europe reports
figures for certain road categories in a Member State, the ERF figures will be used as input
parameter for the scenario model.
As explained in chapter 2, the length of European roads is one of the determining factors of our
model to forecast the installed base (stock) for street lighting in the future.
European road lengths retrieved from Eurostat (Table 162-Table 165 in ANNEX N) indicate a
mean annual growth rate of the road infrastructure of 0,85%. Linear regression would be a
(very) rude (over)simplification of reality as passenger and freight transport activity (and thus
the corresponding road infrastructure) are determined by a variety of factors (see chapter 2.2.2
Stock). To derive a more realistic projection of the European road infrastructure, the EC DG
TREN publication “EU Energy and Transport trends to 2030” (January 2003) was used as
input.
From 2.2.2. we can conclude that the observed annual growth of the European road network of
the past (i.e. 0,85% in the period 1995-2005) does not increase proportional to the projected
increase of transport activity of 1,53% in the period 2000-2030. Simply extrapolating the
observed growth rate of the road infrastructure to the period 2005-2025 is thus not realistic.
Assuming that the truth lies somewhere in between and thus working with an average annual
growth rate of 1,19% for the European road infrastructure makes more sense. We further split
up this growth rate according to road category and assume an annual growth of 2,95% for
category F, 0,53% for category M and 1,4% for category S roads 51 . A sensitivity analysis will
be performed using the observed annual growth rate of the past.
3.3.9 Share of lit roads
We currently assumed that 10% of category F roads, 15% of category M roads and 30% of
category S roads were lit in 1990 52 , increasing linear to 15% cat F, 17,5% cat M and 40% cat S
roads lit in 2025. Main driving forces for this growth in road lighting are a.o.: increase of road
infrastructure, increased passenger and freight transport activity, the high cost of accidents, the
50
http://www.irfnet.org/cms/pages/en/ViewPage.asp?id=21&mTitre=%20-%20World%20Road%20Statistics
51
These Percentages per road category are found by applying the same factor of 1,77 (1,5% projected average
annual increase of transport activity in period 2000-2030/0,85% observed average annual increase of EU road
infrastructure in period 1995-2005) to the observed annual growth rates per road category, and assuming that
reality will be in between those two values (See chapter 2.2.2).
52
The number of luminaires per capita (and the total number of luminaires) per Member State are presented in
Figure 12 and Figure 13 of Annex 2-13)
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