Final Report Lot 9: Public street lighting - Amper

applied recommendations (Sweden, Netherlands, Belgium). Because the model categories have
higher lighting value requirements from category slow to fast the impact is similar with a shift
in % lit roads in a defined catergory.
It is likely that in the model, that road category ‘Fast Traffic’ is underestimated because
(EUROSTAT) ‘State roads’ and ‘Provincial roads’, are now both and 100% summed under
category ‘Mixed Traffic’ but should be partly lit according to ‘Fast Traffic’ lighting
performance standards. Per 1% road category Mixed to category Fast: total EU25 electricity use
decreases with 0,3%. Thus when 10% of State and Provincial roads are lighted as Fast Traffic
roads, total EU25 electricity use decreases with 3%.
It could also be likely that the amount of communal roads lighted as Mixed Traffic is
underestimated. Currently, only 5% of communal roads are allocated to category Mixed Traffic.
Per 1% extra communal road to Mixed road, total EU25 electricity use increases with 0,42%.
Uncertainty regarding % road infrastructure growth
Please note that the implementation of the new standard EN 13201 (2004) series can have a
similar impact. Due to the lack of data about existing installations and their compliance with the
new standard, the impact of the implementation of this standard could hardly be forecasted.
Some installations probably do not comply with the new standard by reason of bad uniformity.
Compliance could require installing more poles and thus can result in an increase in 'new lit
streets' in model terminology.
In category slow traffic, for 2005, 40 million base case luminaires were estimated and is hence
the largest category in terms of n° luminaires, installed power, associated costs and impacts.
Under the base assumption that this category of road is lighted at on average 7,5 lx would mean
that approximately 22,5 %km of total road category S is lit (or 720.000 km lit street) with this
amount of base case luminaires.
The growth rate of street lighting stock is derived from the assumed growth rate of road
infrastructure (% km) for this street category. Forecasting can be based on the assumption that
annual growth rate since 1995 will continue after 2005 (approximately 1 %) but can also be
based on the assumption that road infrastructure growth will follow the expected increase in
transport activity (approximately 1,7 % annually). An in between value of 1,4% increase
annually has been taken for the scenario analysis. At the same time, there are no indications to
assume a relative growth of km lit street (km lit street / km total street remains 22,5%).
In 2020, the amount of installed luminaires for this street category (slow traffic) is then between
47 mio. and 52,5 mio. depending on the underlying assumption for street lighting growth.
Related annual lamp sales will than vary from 15 to 17 mio. units. In Table 131 and Table 132
the values are given for the amount of installed luminaires and related annual lamp use.
Based on annual growth rate before 2005 (1%), expected luminaire life and installed base;
luminaire replacement sales can be calculated. For category slow, in 2005, this amounts up to
about 75% to 80% of total new luminaire sales. The so-called ‘lock-in effect’ can thus not be
underestimated in this category.
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