Final Report Lot 9: Public street lighting - Amper

cost indicator (LCC)
low high
4
3
2
1
0
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
-1
-2
-3
-4
low high
environmental indicator (kWh)
Figure 65: Uncertainty, category Slow
248
more eco-efficient
BaseCase Option 3
Option 4 Option 2
Option 5 Option 6
Option 10 Option 7
Option 8 BNAT
Option 12 Option 9
Option 13 combination 1
Option 11 BAT (comb 2)
When accounting with this magnitude of uncertainty almost none of the individual options can
be favoured comparing one to another, and contribute to the total saving in the same order of
magnitude having non-substantial differences. In some cases option 11 (electronically
dimmable ballasts) and option 13 (HPM replacement with HPS and CMH) and of course
simultaneous implementation of different options clearly demonstrate substantial savings
compared to BAU.
8.1.3.3 Accuracy of the estimated EU25-total energy consumption
It is important to note that there is an uncertainty on the estimated EU25-total energy
consumption and the related scenarios. The main origin is the lack of data about installed stock,
the related long service time of the stock products and the wide variety in new products
performance and future consumer needs.
The following main uncertainties can be identified that have an impact on the calculated E25
energy consumption:
1. Uncertainty regarding assumed wattage per luminaire for the base cases.
2. Uncertainty regarding base case parameters (see chapter 5)
3. Uncertainty regarding % road lit in category slow traffic versus mixed traffic
4. Uncertainty regarding number of luminaires in the installed base (current
assumption 56 mio.)
5. Uncertainty regarding % road infrastructure growth
6. Uncertainty regarding burning hours
7. Uncertainty regarding expected luminaire life and pole life that affect the ratio of
luminaire replacement sales versus new street project sales