The Matrix System at Work - Independent Evaluation Group - World ...
The Matrix System at Work - Independent Evaluation Group - World ...
The Matrix System at Work - Independent Evaluation Group - World ...
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APPENDIX C<br />
RESPONSIVENESS AND EFFECTIVENESS OF THE BANK’S COUNTRY PROGRAMS<br />
country program design. <strong>The</strong>re was no change in the realism r<strong>at</strong>ings over time, with<br />
32 percent r<strong>at</strong>ed moder<strong>at</strong>ely s<strong>at</strong>isfactory or better in the second half of the period of<br />
review, compared to 33 percent in the first half.<br />
15. Four programs were explicitly singled out as fully realistic in their CASCR<br />
reviews. <strong>The</strong> program in Gu<strong>at</strong>emala (FY05-08) fell into this c<strong>at</strong>egory. <strong>The</strong>re, the Bank<br />
carefully calibr<strong>at</strong>ed its program to take into account risky political conditions, using<br />
single-tranche programm<strong>at</strong>ic loans th<strong>at</strong> would allow it to adjust the program as<br />
needed.<br />
16. Twenty-seven other programs were also moder<strong>at</strong>ely s<strong>at</strong>isfactory or better in<br />
terms of their realism. Most had only minor shortcomings with regard to their<br />
estim<strong>at</strong>ion of n<strong>at</strong>ional capacity, estim<strong>at</strong>ion of government commitment,<br />
identific<strong>at</strong>ion of appropri<strong>at</strong>e lending targets and outcome objectives, and selectivity<br />
and prioritiz<strong>at</strong>ion. For example, in Rwanda (FY03-08) the lending and non-lending<br />
program were considered realistic, with slightly ambitious overall objectives. <strong>The</strong>re<br />
were some minor project delays due to gaps in government capacity. <strong>The</strong><br />
s<strong>at</strong>isfactory program c<strong>at</strong>egories are summarized in Figure C.2.<br />
Figure C.2. Most Programs Were Not Realistically Designed<br />
17. In the two-thirds of programs th<strong>at</strong> were not realistically designed, the major<br />
culprits were poor assessments of n<strong>at</strong>ional capacity constraints, absorptive capacity<br />
and robustness of government commitment, the desire for lending , and/or Bank<br />
capacity constraints (as manifested in a lack of selectivity). Indeed, many programs<br />
made misjudgments along several of these dimensions, with over half considered<br />
unrealistic along <strong>at</strong> least two, as shown in Figure C. 3.<br />
18. An overestim<strong>at</strong>ion of government capacity was the most common shortcoming,<br />
occurring in half of the uns<strong>at</strong>isfactory programs, and a third of programs overall.<br />
For example, in Yemen (FY03-05) the program included complex investments and<br />
AAA for which the country did not have sufficient implement<strong>at</strong>ion capacity, and in<br />
Ukraine (FY01-03 and FY04-07), a large number of lending oper<strong>at</strong>ions were planned<br />
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