U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy - Joint Ocean Commission Initiative

3. TRENDS IN POPULATION AND HOUSINGNational TrendsPopulation growth pressures are probably the mostfrequently cited socioeconomic force affecting thecoast. Analysis of Census data from 1970 to 2000shows that population growth in coastal areas hasindeed been substantial, but as the coast is morecomplicated than a single term can encompass, sohave been the population and housing dynamics.Table C.1 (all tables may be found on pages C 21–C 24) provides the data overview of the most importantchanges. These include:• From 1970–2000, the population in coastalwatershed counties increased by more than 37.5million people, an amount equivalent to addingthe total (year 2000) populations of Californiaand Oregon to the United States.• Coastal Zone counties grew by more than 28million people, an amount larger than the 2000populations of Texas and Virginia.Figure C.1 Population and Housing Growth1970–200080%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%■ United StatesSource: U.S. CensusPopulation■ Coastal CountiesHousing• The population growth rates of coastal zone andcoastal watershed counties have not been consistentlymore rapid than the nation as a whole. Infact, over the thirty year period, both tiers ofcoastal counties grew slightly more slowly thanthe nation. Both types of coastal counties didgrow more rapidly than the nation during the1980s, but not in the 1970s or 1990s. In the1970s, population growth was rapid in inlandareas associated with energy development. In the1990s population growth was rapid in the intermountainwest and southeast in the wake whilethe coastal regions endured the effects of a prolongedslump in growth.• Over the last decade, population growth hasbeen fastest away from the shoreline but also inthe counties adjacent to the shore. When all threetiers are examined in the 1990s (data for the nearshore area is available only for 1990 and 2000),the slowest growth was in the near shore tier,while the fastest growth was in the coastal zonecounties. This inland shift of population resultsfrom the fact that much of the coastline isalready developed and tends to be among themost expensive real estate. But rapid populationgrowth has not yet shifted towards the fartherreaches of the watersheds. Growth remains concentratednear, but not on, the shoreline.The proportion of the total United States populationin the coastal watershed and coastal zone countieshas declined slightly over the past thirty years,but the proportion of population in these countiesremains nearly twice their proportion of the landarea of the country. (Table C.2) The proportion ofthe population in the near shore coastal area in 2000is more than three times the proportion of land areaof the near shore.This means the population density of the coastalregions is significantly higher than the nation as awhole. The national density of 79 persons per squaremile of land area (in 2000) is exceeded substantiallyin the near shore area, where there were more than230 persons per square mile. 5 While the populationdensity increased by 22 people per square milenationally from 1970 to 2000, it increased by 43 peopleper square mile in the coastal counties.Regional Trends in Population GrowthTrends in population growth in coastal regions havenot been consistent across the nation. Figure C.2summarizes the population change from 1970 to2000 by region. 6 (See also Table C.3)• The Atlantic and Pacific regions show the largestpopulation growth, but the Gulf of Mexicoregion shows by far the fastest populationgrowth. The coastal zone counties along the GulfC 6A N O CEAN B LUEPRINT FOR THE 21ST C ENTURY