2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

Scenario Reliability Self-AssessmentsOntarioIntroductionThe 2009 NERC Long Term Reliability Assessment for Ontario is the Reference Case againstwhich this Scenario Case is compared.The Reference Case is based on a working revision to the Ontario Power Authority’s 75 2007Integrated Power System Plan (IPSP); which serves as the roadmap to achieving the Ontariogovernment’s long-term electricity goals, including a target of 22,000 MW of renewableresources and conservation efforts by the year 2025. The Scenario Case is based on an alternateworking revision to the OPA’s 2007 IPSP and includes additional renewable wind generationover the Reference Case. Based on the already aggressive target for renewable generation underthe Reference Case, the Scenario Case supply mix represents only a small incremental increaseof renewable resources in terms of incremental annual energy. This incremental energy(Scenario Case over Reference Case) from renewable generation amounts to 2.6 percent of 2008Ontario energy demand. There is no incremental energy contribution from conservationinitiatives in the Scenario Case.The Scenario Case demand forecast for the 2009 to 2018 period is the same as the ReferenceCase demand forecast, and assumes that all of the OPA’s planned conservation initiatives, aswell as contribution from planned distributed generation resources, are realized on time. Alsoconsistent with the Reference Case is that by the end 2014, all of Ontario’s coal-fired generationis to be retired, and a significant number of nuclear units are scheduled for retirement orrefurbishment. The main assumption difference for the Scenario Case is the incrementaladdition of over 2,500 MW installed capacity (about 1,000 MW effective capacity) by the year2017. Of this 2,500 MW, 1,500 MW is installed wind capacity and 1,000 MW is gas-firedcapacity.Over the period 2009 to 2018, the Ontario system is expected to operate reliably and meetrequired reserve margins under Scenario Case demand, supply and transmission assumptions. Infact, reserve above required margins over the 2012-2018 timeframe are higher than those in theReference Case, as only incremental resources are added; with no reduction in generationcapacity or change from the Reference Case generation retirement schedule. Demand forecaststays the same for both scenarios. Incremental resources included in the Scenario Case are inplace to offset approximately 1,200 MW less nuclear generation capacity (Scenario Case vs.Reference Case) scheduled to come in-service beyond the 2018 study timeframe (as per OPA’sworking revisions to the 2007 IPSP).Additional transmission infrastructure is required to facilitate the incremental 2,500 MW ofinstalled generation capacity by the year 2017. Maintaining the reliable operation of the systemunder the Scenario Case would require careful management of the supply-demand balance underlow load conditions. In addition, the increasing contribution of renewable and embedded(distributed) generation would require enhanced procedures and processes in both planning andoperation of the Ontario system. The main considerations and initiatives identified under the75 Established in 2005, the Ontario Power Authority (OPA) is the electricity system planner for the province ofOntario.2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment Page 101