2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

Joint Coordinated System PlanJCSP Regional Energy Capacity Factors Used for Future Wind Generators[Source: JCSP economic study presentation]The JCSP study also developed and analyzed the costs and benefits of conceptual transmissionoverlays for the two scenarios (reference and 20 percent wind energy). Both transmissionoverlays incorporate specific transmission projects that will contribute to the system’s reliabilityneeds for the ten-year period through 2018 and provide economic benefits in the 2024. Theseconceptual transmission overlays enabled the study of large-scale power transfers betweendifferent Regions of the country. The JCSP study did not evaluate the additional underlyinglower voltage transmission network that will be necessary to connect the rest of the system.Detailed maps showing the transmission overlays that were used in the JCSP study are located inthe individual Regional Entity sections.The figures below show the megawatt power flows between interfaces during the time of peakload for the JCSP footprint (August 1, 2024 16:00) with inclusion of each respective conceptualoverlay. The JCSP was performed using an 8,760 hourly energy model. Figures X and Yrepresent only a single hour snapshot from the production cost model. Depending on outages andwind unit outputs, flows could significantly change from hour to hour. In the JCSP productioncost model, units are dispatched based on security constrained economics. Because of thisdispatch methodology, increased single hour flows in Figure Y, as compared to Figure X, are notnecessarily a reflection of an increased amount of wind in the 20 percent case, but rather anincreased capability to transfer low cost capacity to areas with higher load costs.Figure X: Reference Case Peak Load Megawatt Power Flows Between InterfacesPage 1802009 Scenario Reliability Assessment