2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

Scenario Reliability Self-Assessmentsincludes 33,244 MW of Existing, Certain generating capacity, -94 MW of net CapacityTransactions, and 1,349 MW of Future, Planned generating capacity additions. The ReferenceCase shows that ISO-NE has a total of 12,462 MW of Conceptual Capacity within its GeneratorInterconnection Queue, 57 with in-service dates ranging from 2009 to 2015. The Scenario Caseshows that ISO-NE has only a total of 4,654 MW of Conceptual Capacity of new renewablecapacity within the same Generator Interconnection Queue, with in-service dates ranging from2009 to 2014. Although some projects that reside within the ISO-NE Generator InterconnectionQueue have declared in-service dates of 2009 or 2010, some of those projects have notdemonstrated viable pre-commercial activities and were categorized as conceptual capacity.Within the Reference and Scenario Cases, Future, Planned wind capacity for the summer of 2018includes 88 MW (350 MW nameplate with a 262 MW on-peak derate) of new wind capacity.Reference Case Conceptual wind capacity amounts to 2,180 MW while the Scenario CaseConceptual wind capacity amounts to 3,380 MW.A total of 468 MW of Conceptual biomass capacity is proposed for installation in New Englandwith target in-service dates of 2009 through 2014. This is the same assumption for the ScenarioCase.ISO-NE’s capacity margin calculations include Planned Capacity Resources that are expected tobegin commercial operation by the end of 2009. This information is based on either the datespecified in a signed Interconnection Agreement, or discussions with the ISO indicating that theproject is nearing completion and is preparing to become an ISO generator asset. Also includedin the planned capacity resources are new projects that have obligations in the ISO-NE ForwardCapacity Market through 2011—2012.Within the Scenario Case, the same base assumption sets are used throughout the ten-yeartimeframe, except for the fact that the magnitude of Conceptual Capacity Resources 58 in the year2018 is somewhat larger than those assumed for the Reference Case.Capacity Transactions on PeakThe same assumptions were used for Capacity Transactions for the 2009 Scenario Case thatwere used within the Reference Case, with respect to firm on-peak imports and exports. Underboth cases, firm summer imports amount to approximately 401 MW in 2009, 899 MW in 2010,and 2,298 MW for 2011 and 2012. The imports for 2010 and 2011 reflect the Forward CapacityAuction results. The 2011 FCA results were assumed to remain in place in 2012. Since the FCAimports are based on one-year contracts, beginning in 2013 the imports reflect only known, longtermInstalled Capacity (ICAP) contracts. Firm summer imports decrease to 334 MW in 2013and 2014, and decrease again to 284 MW in 2015 and 112 MW in 2016, and then level off at 6MW for the summers of 2017 and 2018.56 Due to differences in assumptions, the amount of existing and planned capacity in summer 2009 is different fromthat published in ISO New England’s 2009-2018 Forecast Report of Capacity, Energy, Loads, and Transmission(CELT Report).57 As of the March 15, 2009 ISO-NE Generation Interconnection Queue publication.58 After applying the individual, but different, Confidence Factors.2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment Page 77