2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

Scenario Reliability Self-AssessmentsSERCSoutheast Generation Fuel Shift AnalysisIntroductionDetailed discussion of the 2008 Long-Term Reliability Assessment Reference Case (ReferenceCase) for the comparisons presented here can be found in the introductory sections of this report.Because there is little or no penetration of type of resources offered in the Scenario #1 option ofthe NERC Scenario Analysis in the SERC Region, the utilities in the SERC Region opted forScenario #2 (a scenario of the Region’s choosing). The SERC Region selected a scenario whichsignificantly impacts supply mix in the SERC Region in 2019 by adding significant amounts ofcarbon neutral generation as indicated in table 1 below. The SERC Long-term Study Group(LTSG) conducted this study to evaluate future performance of the interconnected electrictransmission systems within the SERC Region for the 2019 summer peak season. This study wasinitiated in July 2008, at the direction of the SERC Regional Studies Steering Committee(RSSC), as part of a continuing effort to:Accomplish the objectives of the various reliability agreements among SERCmember systems by examining the resulting transfer capability, andRespond to the data request of NERC for a Long-term Reliability AssessmentScenario Case to supplement the Reference Case.The primary focus of this scenario is the addition of substantial generation (both nuclear andfossil but primarily nuclear) beyond the Reference Case; over 13,000 MW to selected points inthe Region.The SERC Reliability Review Subcommittee (RRS) proposed and received approval by theNERC Planning Committee (PC) to evaluate potential Southeast Generation Expansion as theRegion’s Scenario Case. The prospective generation plants within the SERC Region wouldintroduce large amounts of capacity in only a few sites on the system (resulting in a lumpinesseffect), requiring some bulk power transmission expansion. While the local area impact of eachplant would be captured by the required System Impact Studies to be performed by therespective Transmission Providers to which these plants would be interconnected, joint-studies inthe future are expected to evaluate system reliability impacts of all the proposed and prospectiveplants simultaneously.Study ProcedureThis study utilizes a power flow model developed by the SERC study group representatives toinclude best-available representations of the projected 2019 summer season at the time of thisstudy. The power flow study model was derived from the 2019 summer season SERC case(LTSG19S), which was created during the SERC Data Bank Update by SERC utilities the weekof June 2-6, 2008. Typically, the aforementioned changes are either budgeted orplanned/conceptual facilities with in-service dates during or after the summer of 2008.2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment Page 135