2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

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Scenario Reliability Self-AssessmentsEngland, as stipulated within the Scenario #1 requirement. Therefore, 5 percent of the overall 15percent, which are supposed to come from new renewable resources, comes in the form of newdemand-side resources within the category of Energy Efficiency.In keeping with ISO-NE’s prior treatment of reflecting demand-side resources as supply-sidecapacity, within the Scenario Case, there were no reductions taken to projected peak demands.The peak demand reductions associated with the impacts of the new Energy Efficiency programsare shown as equivalent supply-side capacity within the line item for Conceptual Capacity.Reductions were made to the associated energy use projections, as mandated by the Scenario #1requirement.Building on the assumption above, the remaining 10 percent of the overall 15 percent, which aresupposed to come from new renewable resources, comes in the form of new renewable supplysideresources that are currently within the ISO Generation Interconnection Queue (“ISO-NEQueue”) and are assumed to materialize by the target year 2018.For the summer 2018 target assessment year, the Reference Case assumed approximately 12,462MW of Conceptual Capacity. However, beginning with this year’s NERC Long-Term ReliabilityAssessment submittal, a 20 percent Confidence Factor 41 has been applied to this amount ofConceptual Capacity Resources. This 20 percent Confidence Factor represents the amount ofConceptual Capacity that may become commercialized within the Region, starting in the year2010. This 20 percent Confidence Factor is held constant going forward in time. In the summerof 2018, this equates to approximately 2,492 MW. For the same summer 2018 target assessmentyear, the Scenario Case assumed approximately 4,654 MW 42 of the Reference Case’s ConceptualCapacity would be commercial by 2018. That 4,654 MW of capacity consists of renewablegeneration projects within the ISO-NE Queue, which are mostly new wind capacity (87 percent),with minor capacity contributions (13 percent) from the combination of biomass, small hydroelectric,landfill gas, and fuel cell technologies.The main assumption of the Scenario Case is that if only the amount of renewable capacity thatis currently proposed within the ISO-NE Queue is commercialized, these projects generateenough electric energy on an annual basis to satisfy over 11.1 percent of the annual energydemand in 2018. When combined with the assumed 5 percent reduction in annual peak demand(in the form of supply-side capacity) and a 5 percent reduction in overall energy use as a result ofnew Energy Efficiency contributions, then over 16 percent of the forecast annual energy usewould be met by new renewable resources, as mandated by the Scenario #1 requirement.The 2009 Long-Term Reliability Assessment Reference Case that was submitted by ISO-NEidentified three open issues going forward that could possibly impact system reliability. Thosethree issues were the potential impact on Regional capacity (and resource adequacy) from:41 This 20 percent value for the Confidence of Conceptual Resources was developed from a historical trend thatreflects the amount of capacity that has commercialized from within ISO-NE’s Generator Interconnection Queue.Within the 2009 LTRA Reference Case, ISO-NE’s Conceptual Capacity reflects all the remaining capacity withinthe ISO-NE Generator Interconnection Queue that has not been classified as either Future, Planned or Future,Other – Capacity Additions.42 This amount of Scenario Case Conceptual Capacity has an associated Confidence Factor of 100 percent.2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment Page 63
Scenario Reliability Self-Assessments1) A potentially large influx of new, intermittent capacity resources like wind generation. 43Currently, New England has very little existing wind capacity (less than 100 MW ofnameplate), but concerns exist over the resultant impacts from compliance with stateRenewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), and the corresponding build-out of these newsupply-side resources in the near-term. Because of this and other operational concerns,ISO-NE is currently embarking on a major wind integration study to identify the detailedoperational issues of integrating large amounts of wind resources into the New Englandpower grid. This wind study will also propose solutions to those problems.2) The unknowns associated with upcoming nuclear plant relicensing that is scheduled tooccur within a 3 to 16 year time frame, 44 and,3) The potential need to modify, refurbish, or retire both river and coastal, steam-generationpower plants that currently use “once-through” cooling with “closed-loop” coolingsystems. Current rulemaking at the United States EPA, which has been recently ruled onby the U.S. Supreme Court, injects uncertainty into the process for which revisedNPDES 45 water permits may soon mandate cooling tower arrangements in order toreduce the impact on aquatic life due to power plant cooling operations.The first issue (#1) is an emerging operational issue. The last two issues (#2 and #3) can becombined and categorized as a potential loss of operable capacity, with that potential loss beingeither temporary or permanent in nature. The reliability impacts stemming from the last twoissues equate to a resource adequacy issue.This Scenario Case that is submitted by ISO-NE includes these same Reference Case unknownsconcerning new wind power development, nuclear plant relicensing, and the potential need forretrofitting closed-loop cooling, but more importantly, it identifies several key issues withrespect to potential impacts on system operations which could result from the postulated rapidinflux of new renewable resources into New England’s power system. Aside from the straightforwardcomparisons of capacity margins and resource adequacy between the 2009 Long-TermReliability Assessment Reference Case and this Scenario Case, the Scenario Case deals morewith trying to identify and gauge the impacts on system operations due to the commercializationof numerous types of new supply and demand-side technologies.It should be noted, however, that a short-coming of this Scenario Case is that many of these new,supply-side renewable resources like wind that are not yet fully commercialized within theRegion. Also, the numerous amounts of demand-side resources which are spearheading theinstallation of new “smart-grid” technologies within the field, are technologies that are new toNew England, and subsequently, are relatively unknown with respect to grid operations. Thus,these new supply and demand-side resources have minimal operating hours from which to43 Currently, ISO-NE has approximately 2,500 MW (total) of new onshore & offshore wind projects requestingstudy within its Generation Interconnection Queue.44 Within New England, approximately 1,300 MW of nuclear capacity has their current NRC Operating Licenseexpiring within a three-year timeframe and approximately 3,350 MW of nuclear capacity has their current NRCOperating License expiring within a sixteen-year timeframe.45 The National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES).Page 642009 Scenario Reliability Assessment
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Table of ContentsTable of ContentsN
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Executive SummaryTransmission Criti
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Background Information for this Rep
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Scenario Reliability Assessment Sum
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Scenario Reliability Assessment Sum
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About This Reporto Nuclear scenario
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Joint Coordinated System PlanThemat
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Joint Coordinated System Plan2009 S
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Scenario LetterScenario LetterDecem
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Scenario LetterIn an effort to add
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Scenario Letterd) Provide a table,
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Reliability Assessment Subcommittee
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Reliability Assessment Subcommittee
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the reliability of theto ensurebulk
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