2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

Scenario Reliability Self-AssessmentsFigure RFC-1: RPS Mandates and Goals by State, as of January 1, 2008[Source: JCSP economic study report, pg. 34]In the JCSP study, all wind generation in the Reference Scenario is carried forward to the 20percent Wind Energy Scenario, and in this Scenario, assumes that a federal 20 percent wind-onlyenergy mandate is met by 2024.All states with RPS provisions which require a phasing-in of capacity with specific milestonerequirements are included in the JSCP wind calculations. In the JSCP study, 2010 was the firstyear that wind generators were placed in-service due to the two year construction lead time.The JCSP study assumed the same percentage level of demand response for the 2024 case asexisted in 2008 (i.e. if there was a 2.5 percent demand response level in 2008, then new demandresponse additions were made out through 2024 to maintain that 2.5 percent share). In the RFCReference and Scenario Cases, the amount of demand response (6,900 MW) was kept constantfor each study year. Energy efficiency was embedded within the demand forecast.Figure 2 below shows the Regional capacity factors of future wind generators for energy useused in the JCSP economic study. Within RFC, the study used a 35 percent capacity factor forthe PJM area, 40 percent for the MISO Indiana/Ohio area, 35 percent for Michigan, and 45percent for the Wisconsin area.2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment Page 121