2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

Scenario Reliability Self-AssessmentsTable ERCOT- 1: MW Tiers for ERCOT CREZ Transmission OptimizationStudyScenario 1(MW)Scenario 2(MW)Scenario 3(MW)Scenario 4(MW)Wind installed asof 4/2/20086,903 6,903 6,903 6,903Incremental CREZ WindPanhandle A 1,422 3,191 4,960 6,660Panhandle B 1,067 2,393 3,270 0McCamey 829 1,859 2,890 3,190Central 1,358 3,047 4,735 5,615Central West 474 1,063 1,651 2,051CREZ WindCapacity5,150 11,553 17,956 17,516Total WindInstalled12,053 18,456 24,859 24,419Scenario 2 was selected by the PUCT and the construction of the transmission plan necessary toimplement this scenario has been ordered by the PUCT. Therefore, this transmission plan isincluded in the Long-Term Reliability Assessment Reference Case. CREZ Scenario 3 providesthe basis for this 2009 Long-Term Reliability Assessment Scenario Case. The transmission plandeveloped for Scenario 3 includes several new circuits in the Texas panhandle, and a 2,000MWHVdc circuit from west Texas to the Houston area. These circuits are incremental to thetransmission plan included in the Reference Case. The combined transmission plan for Scenario3 (including the CREZ lines that are needed for Scenario 2 as well as the incremental lines forScenario 3) is depicted in Figure ERCOT-2. The estimated cost of this plan is an incremental$1.45 billion over the plan that is included in the Reference Case, plus any incrementalinterconnection system costs. This plan includes 300 miles of new 345 kV right-of-way and 360miles of new HVdc right-of-way plus the incremental interconnection facilities.2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment Page 23