2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

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Scenario Reliability Self-AssessmentsThen at the year 2018, this renewable energy contribution is roughly equivalent to approximately11.1 percent of the target year 2018 Scenario Case annual energy forecast of 135,019 GWh.When coupled with the 5 percent annual energy reduction due to new Energy Efficiency buildout,the combined renewable energy contributions (16.1 percent) clearly represent the Scenario#1 mandate of having over 15 percent of the annual energy contribution from new renewableresources by 2018 (including Energy Efficiency at no more than 5 percent).Table New England 2-3 shows the Scenario Case Renewable Summer Capacity CumulativeAdditions by Year of Commercialization.Table New England-2-3: Scenario Case Renewable Summer CapacityCumulative Additions by Year of CommercializationSummer 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014(MW)Wind 0 193 1,660 2,446 3,602 3,730Biomass 8 198 247 387 387 487Landfill0 0 34 34 34 34GasHydro 0 15 17 17 17 17Fuel Cell 0 9 9 9 9 9Totals 8 415 1,967 2,893 4,049 4,277Note: Sums may not equal totals due to rounding.Table New England 2-4 shows the Scenario Case Renewable Winter Capacity CumulativeAdditions by Year of Commercialization.Table 2-4 – Scenario Case Renewable Winter Capacity CumulativeAdditions by Year of CommercializationWinter 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15(MW)Wind 287 1,350 2,446 3,602 3,730 3,730Biomass 104 125 387 387 437 487Landfill0 34 34 34 34 34GasHydro 8 16 17 17 17 17Fuel Cell 0 9 9 9 9 9Totals 399 1,534 2,893 4,049 4,227 4,277Note: Sums may not equal totals due to rounding.As noted above, Tables New England 2-1 through Table New England 2-4 represent the amountof future renewable nameplate capacity that is assumed to materialize under the mandate of theScenario #1 requirement. Correspondingly, Tables New England 2-5 and Table New England 2-6 represent this same amount of new renewable capacity, as categorized within the ScenarioCase spreadsheet, broken out into the individual components of Future Capacity (Planned &2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment Page 71
Scenario Reliability Self-AssessmentsOther) and Conceptual Capacity. This is shown because the 2009 Long-Term ReliabilityAssessment Reference Case had already shown some of this new renewable capacity beingcommercialized in the near-term (thus shown as Future Capacity (Planned & Other). Thoseequivalent amounts of capacity had to be taken out of the remaining Conceptual Capacity lineitem.One problem pertaining to wind capacity within the associated NERC spreadsheets is that whenit is categorized as Conceptual Capacity, only nameplate capacity is used. When that same windcapacity becomes near-term commercial, and is placed into the Future Capacity line item, thenthe specific Future, Planned Wind Expected On-Peak and the Future, Other Wind Derate On-Peak Capacity must be defined using the existing market rules and site-specific windinformation. Unfortunately, this information is not available for the majority of wind projectswithin the ISO-NE Queue, thus the reasoning for using nameplate wind capacity within both theReference and Scenario Case Conceptual Capacity line items.Although somewhat confusing, the Scenario Case’s new renewable capacity does match upbetween nameplate projections shown here (Table New England 2-1 through Table New England2-4) and the individual capacity components defined within the corresponding Scenario Casespreadsheet (as shown in Table New England 2-5 and Table New England 2-6).Page 722009 Scenario Reliability Assessment
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2009 Scenario ReliabilityAssessment
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Table of ContentsTable of ContentsN
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Executive SummaryTransmission Criti
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Background Information for this Rep
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Scenario Reliability Assessment Sum
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Scenario Reliability Assessment Sum
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Scenario Reliability Self-Assessmen
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Regional Reliability Scenario Self-
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About This Reporto Nuclear scenario
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Joint Coordinated System PlanThemat
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Joint Coordinated System Plan2009 S
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Scenario LetterScenario LetterDecem
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Scenario LetterIn an effort to add
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Scenario Letterd) Provide a table,
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Reliability Assessment Subcommittee
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Reliability Assessment Subcommittee
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the reliability of theto ensurebulk
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2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

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