2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

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Scenario Reliability Self-AssessmentsSERCSoutheast Generation Fuel Shift AnalysisIntroductionDetailed discussion of the 2008 Long-Term Reliability Assessment Reference Case (ReferenceCase) for the comparisons presented here can be found in the introductory sections of this report.Because there is little or no penetration of type of resources offered in the Scenario #1 option ofthe NERC Scenario Analysis in the SERC Region, the utilities in the SERC Region opted forScenario #2 (a scenario of the Region’s choosing). The SERC Region selected a scenario whichsignificantly impacts supply mix in the SERC Region in 2019 by adding significant amounts ofcarbon neutral generation as indicated in table 1 below. The SERC Long-term Study Group(LTSG) conducted this study to evaluate future performance of the interconnected electrictransmission systems within the SERC Region for the 2019 summer peak season. This study wasinitiated in July 2008, at the direction of the SERC Regional Studies Steering Committee(RSSC), as part of a continuing effort to:Accomplish the objectives of the various reliability agreements among SERCmember systems by examining the resulting transfer capability, andRespond to the data request of NERC for a Long-term Reliability AssessmentScenario Case to supplement the Reference Case.The primary focus of this scenario is the addition of substantial generation (both nuclear andfossil but primarily nuclear) beyond the Reference Case; over 13,000 MW to selected points inthe Region.The SERC Reliability Review Subcommittee (RRS) proposed and received approval by theNERC Planning Committee (PC) to evaluate potential Southeast Generation Expansion as theRegion’s Scenario Case. The prospective generation plants within the SERC Region wouldintroduce large amounts of capacity in only a few sites on the system (resulting in a lumpinesseffect), requiring some bulk power transmission expansion. While the local area impact of eachplant would be captured by the required System Impact Studies to be performed by therespective Transmission Providers to which these plants would be interconnected, joint-studies inthe future are expected to evaluate system reliability impacts of all the proposed and prospectiveplants simultaneously.Study ProcedureThis study utilizes a power flow model developed by the SERC study group representatives toinclude best-available representations of the projected 2019 summer season at the time of thisstudy. The power flow study model was derived from the 2019 summer season SERC case(LTSG19S), which was created during the SERC Data Bank Update by SERC utilities the weekof June 2-6, 2008. Typically, the aforementioned changes are either budgeted orplanned/conceptual facilities with in-service dates during or after the summer of 2008.2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment Page 135
Scenario Reliability Self-AssessmentsThe study results were obtained by use of PTI's MUST and PSS/E programs. The base case,linear runs, and AC verification were performed by TVA and the report was assembled byAssociated Electric Cooperative, Inc.DemandThere were no differences between the Reference Case and Scenario Case relative to weather,economic assumptions, growth rate or load variability. Additionally there were no differences incontrollable demand response reducing peak demand - i.e. interruptible demand; direct controlload management; critical peak pricing with control; load as a capacity resource, etc.GenerationThe amount of capacity resources expected to be in-service by 2019 in the Reference Case is232,027. The Scenario Case results in incremental 13,112 MW of installed resources (anincrement of approximately 6 percent) in accordance with Table 1 by fuel type. All incrementalresources are conventional resources.Table SERC-1: SERC Region Generation by 2019 by Fuel Type MWResourceTypeReference Case Scenario Case DifferenceNuclear 38,041 50,500 +12,459Fossil 169,158 169,436 +278All others 24,829 25,204 +375Total 232,028 245,140 +13,112The assumptions pertaining to when resources are added over the entire ten-year time frame arenot developed, as this analysis is a single year analysis for 2019. Generation added for the 2019study was distributed among four of the five SERC subregions as follows:Table SERC-2: SERC Region 2019 Additional Generation by Subregion by FuelType MWResource Type Central Delta Gateway VACAR TotalNuclear 2,426 3,288 1,706 5,039 12,459Fossil 278 0 0 0 278All others 375 0 0 0 375Total 3,079 3,288 1,706 5,039 13,112There are no differences in variable (i.e. wind, solar, etc.) resources between the Reference Caseand the Scenario Case; however much of the new generation is conventional carbon neutraltechnology.There are no differences in Biomass (wood, wood waste, municipal solid waste, landfill gas, andethanol) generation projects between the Reference Case and the Scenario Case.Page 1362009 Scenario Reliability Assessment
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Executive SummaryTransmission Criti
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Background Information for this Rep
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Scenario LetterIn an effort to add
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Scenario Letterd) Provide a table,
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Reliability Assessment Subcommittee
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Reliability Assessment Subcommittee
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the reliability of theto ensurebulk
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2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

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