2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

Scenario Reliability Self-Assessmentsoperability section of the Reference Case assessment are expected to play an increasingly vitalrole in the operation of the system envisioned in the Scenario Case.DemandThe Scenario Case demand forecast for the period 2009 to 2018 is the same as the ReferenceCase demand forecast used in the 2009 NERC Long-Term Reliability Assessment. This includesall weather, economic, conservation and embedded generation forecast assumptions. Overall,this year’s demand forecast has an average annual growth rate of -0.7 percent over the ten yearperiod. This negative growth in demand is based on the expected economic/industrialrestructuring following the current economic recession, as well as the expected impact ofconservation and embedded (distributed) generation.GenerationCapacity resources listed under the Existing and Future/Planned categories are identical in boththe Reference and Scenario Cases. Generation resource assumptions differ only under theConceptual/Proposed category; where under the Scenario Case, incremental installed windgeneration appears in 2012, and grows to 1,500 MW by 2017, while incremental gas-firedgeneration (approximately 1,000 MW) comes in-service in 2015. The Scenario Case does notinclude any advanced or additional generation retirements, or changes in schedule to any Futureor Conceptual resources that are included in the Reference Case. As a result, overall capacityover the 2012-2018 timeframe is higher in the Scenario Case versus the Reference Case.Consistent with Reference Case assumptions, eleven percent of the installed wind capacity isassumed to be available at the time of summer peak, and thirty percent is assumed to be availableat the time of winter peak for years 2009 and 2010. These values represent IESO capacity valuesfor wind generation and fall under IESO’s operational planning timeframe (18-Month forecast).From 2011 onwards, the OPA’s summer peak wind capacity value of twenty percent of installedcapacity is used 76 (the winter capacity value of thirty percent is retained over this time period).Planned and Proposed capacity resources for the Scenario Case are selected based on analternate working revision to the Ontario Power Authority’s 2007 Integrated Power System Plan.The OPA’s statutory objects require it to, among other things, ensure adequate, reliable andsecure electricity supply and resources in Ontario and to conduct independent planning forelectricity generation, demand management, conservation and transmission.One of the responsibilities of the OPA is to develop a 20-year IPSP and to submit the IPSP to theOntario Energy Board for its review and approval. The IPSP is to be updated every three years.The IPSP must follow any directives issued by Ontario’s Minister of Energy and Infrastructurerelating to the government’s electricity goals. In addition, the OPA must develop appropriateprocurement processes for managing electricity supply, transmission capacity and demandmeasures and must apply to the Ontario Energy Board for approval of the IPSP’s proposedprocurement processes.76 Calculation of the OPA’s wind capacity contribution value can be found at the following link:http://www.powerauthority.on.ca/Storage/53/4871_D-5-1_Att_4_corrected_071019.pdfPage 1022009 Scenario Reliability Assessment