2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

Scenario Reliability Self-Assessmentsgenerator interconnection queues and other projects yet to be identified or announced. Theseassumed capacity additions consist of 12,000 MW of wind generation and 28,800 MW of fossil,nuclear and hydro generation.The nameplate amount of capacity for RFC in the wind Scenario Case is 283,000 MW. The60,900 MW capacity assumed to be installed from projects identified in the MISO and PJMgenerator interconnection queues and other projects yet to be identified or announced, consists of37,600 MW of wind generation and 23,300 MW of fossil, nuclear and hydro generation.Therefore, the Scenario Case contains 25,600 MW of additional wind generation along with a5,500 MW net reduction in other generation.Assuming that 20 percent of the nameplate rating of wind resources would be available at thetime of the summer peak, the amount of on-peak capacity committed to serve net internaldemand in the RFC area is 250,700 MW in the Reference Case and 250,300 MW in the ScenarioCase. The reserve margin for both the reference and Scenario Cases are 23 percent, whichexceeds the 15-16 percent target reserve margins in the Region.Deliverability of capacity is not specifically addressed in this report. One purpose of the scenarioanalysis is to determine, in general, the impacts of large amounts of wind power on the system asa result of renewable portfolio standards. The JCSP study developed a transmission overlay toenable the large-scale transfer of power between different Regions of the country. The JCSPstudy did not evaluate the necessary underlying lower voltage transmission network needed tomake those transfers deliverable to the load. For the resource analysis portion of this assessment,it was assumed that there would be no appreciable constraints on the delivery of any resource toload.The potential impact of adverse weather conditions and fuel supply issues were not developedfor this scenario assessment.Page 1242009 Scenario Reliability Assessment