2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

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Scenario Reliability Self-AssessmentsMRO HighlightsThis assessment quantifies the amount of wind generation that wouldbe required to serve an additional 15 percent of energy within theMRO footprint in 2017, above and beyond the existing renewablegeneration capabilities. It also reports on the amount of windgeneration and transmission reinforcement that could materializewithin the MRO footprint based on the results of the multi-regionalstudy referred to as the Joint Coordinated System Plan (JCSP) studyof 2008. This study takes into account the Interconnection Queues and Renewable PortfolioStandards (RPS) for most of the states in the Eastern Interconnection and describes what theBulk Electric System might require if 20 percent of the JCSP footprint energy in 2024 is servedby wind generation. This large scale multi-regional study of variable generation installed acrossthe Eastern Interconnection is the most comprehensive to date and is being referenced by severalRegional Entities in this report.Wind power development in the Upper Midwest continues to be carried out at a very rapid pace.Wind generation nameplate capacity within the MRO Region increased from approximately4,000 MW in June 2008 to about 6,000 MW in June 2009, a 50 percent increase in one year. Inthis assessment, the MRO focuses its attention on the operational issues, as there have beenindications that operating the system with a significant amount of wind generation would be achallenge.As the result of this assessment, the MRO Scenario Assessment Task Force has found thefollowing:Given the wind-resource richness of the Upper Midwest, the RPS mandates in a numberof states within the MRO footprint, and the production tax credit in effect through 2012,it is likely that the total wind resource nameplate capacity within the MRO-US wouldreach the level estimated in this assessment—32,10 MW in 2017, capable of serving 41.7percent of the subregion’s 2017 energy.System planners and operators must be aware of the operational issues that come withsuch a large amount of wind generation. These issues are important to identify up front,since wind generation is routinely being installed more quickly than the transmission thatis needed to deliver it to distant load centers.There would be a need for tremendous transmission facility additions to accommodatethe added wind resources. However, at this time, there are no plans that indicate whichtypes of facilities or how and when any of them would be constructed.2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment Page 15
Scenario Reliability Self-AssessmentsNPCC HighlightsThe scenario analysis for the NPCC Region, as part of the NERC2009 Long Term Reliability Assessment, assumed incrementalrenewable resources to provide an additional 15 percent (a maximumof 5 percent made up from Energy Efficiency) of the requirementsfor the year 2018 for the Reliability Coordinator BalancingAuthorities within NPCC (Maritimes, New England, New York,Ontario and Québec). The comparisons are judged against the Reference Case and datapresented in the 2009 Long Term Reliability Assessment. The Québec area is an asynchronousInterconnection with over 90 percent of its energy produced by renewable resources over the tenyear time frame of the Long-Term Reliability Assessment, and, its future energy productionwould continue to be sourced through renewable resources. In the remaining four areas, a totalof 15,230 MW of wind generation is assumed to be in service: Maritimes 2,350 MW New England 3,380 MW New York 8,000 MW Ontario 1,500 MW Québec 0 MWUpon the assumption of this addition of renewable capacity, planning reserve margins increasesignificantly for the study year of 2018.Because of the variable characteristics of wind generation, each of the NPCC areas is addressingthe operational challenges of integrating large amounts of intermittent resources. These includeincreased periods of operation at minimum load and the need for increased regulation and loadfollowing characteristics.The Scenario Case reports no specific bulk power transmission additions. However, within theNYISO and ISO-NE, the planning process would identify and integrate renewable resources intothe system; the NYISO has also recognized some portions of the system may realize localconstraints which could result in some amount of undeliverable wind energy. The IESO expectsthat new 500 kV transmission west of its London substation would be needed to support theaddition of the proposed wind resources. The New Brunswick System Operator estimates that400 miles of 138 kV construction would be required. Increased system voltage support in manylocal areas would also be necessary.Although the incorporation of significant amounts of renewable capacity would be a challenge, itis believed that these resources would be reliably integrated.Page 162009 Scenario Reliability Assessment
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About This Reporto Nuclear scenario
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Joint Coordinated System PlanThemat
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Joint Coordinated System Plan2009 S
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Scenario LetterScenario LetterDecem
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Scenario LetterIn an effort to add
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Scenario Letterd) Provide a table,
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Reliability Assessment Subcommittee
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Reliability Assessment Subcommittee
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the reliability of theto ensurebulk
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2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

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