2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

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Scenario Reliability Self-AssessmentsOntario’s first IPSP was submitted to the Ontario Energy Board for review in August 2007. Itcovers a period of twenty years, complies with the goals and requirements set out by thegovernment of Ontario, and proposes a procurement process for managing electricity supply,transmission capacity and demand measures. In the fall of 2008, Ontario’s Minister of Energyand Infrastructure directed the OPA to revisit the IPSP with the aim of establishing new targetsfor the amount and diversity of renewable energy sources, conservation programs and otherinitiatives. Two working revisions of the IPSP were provided as inputs for the Reference Caseand Scenario Case assessments respectively. Planned and Proposed resources are based on themost recently available data associated with the Scenario Case OPA working revision.Capacity Transactions on PeakAt present, there are no Firm, Non-Firm, Expected or Provisional purchases or sales to or fromother Regions. This assumption is consistent to the capacity transaction assumptions used in theReference Case.The IESO has agreements in place with neighbouring jurisdictions in NPCC, RFC and MRO foremergency imports and reserve sharing, should they be required in day-to-day operations.TransmissionIntegration of incremental wind and gas-fired generation envisioned under the Scenario Casewould require a greater number of the new transmission projects identified in the Reference Caseto be constructed. At the Proposed/Conceptual level, a large portion of the additional wind andall of the gas-fired generation under the Scenario Case would be located in Ontario’s Westtransmission zone. As a result, it is expected that construction of the new line(s) west of Londonwould need to be suitable for 500kV operation to incorporate the additional generation.Adopting a 500kV standard for the new transmission lines would also require 500/230kV autotransformersto be installed at Lambton TS and possibly at Chatham TS.Similarly, with more incremental renewable resources developed, a greater number of theenabler transmission lines identified in the Reference Case would need to be constructed toaccommodate the additional resources identified in the Scenario Case.Operational IssuesOperational issues identified in the Reference Case such as Surplus Baseload Generation (SBG)during minimum load periods would require increasingly careful planning and managementunder Scenario Case assumptions.Similar to the Reference Case, the implementation of a centralized wind forecast system is alikely requirement for the system to be able to handle the variability of wind generation – thisrequirement is heightened in the Scenario Case. At the same time, the need for reliable andmaneuverable generation for load following purposes also increases with greater penetration ofvariable generation. In the Scenario Case, incremental wind generation is accompanied byapproximately 1,000 MW of gas-fired generation that is expected to fall under the category ofpeaking generation. The operational flexibility associated with this proposed gas-firedgeneration is expected to enhance the effective management of increased variable generation byproviding ramp capability, and the ability to provide operating reserve.2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment Page 103
Scenario Reliability Self-AssessmentsReliability Assessment AnalysisAs described earlier in this assessment, the Scenario Case has the exact same generationportfolio from 2009-2011, and only additional generation capacity from 2012-2018, whencompared to the Reference Case. In addition, the demand forecast is the same for both cases. Asa result, projected capacity margins for the Scenario Case are the same over the first three yearsof the study, and higher over the remaining years when compared to the Reference Case.Ontario reserve margin requirements are satisfied by Existing, Planned and Proposed internalgeneration resources described in the Scenario Case over the entire assessment period.No new assumptions were made when evaluating reserve margin criteria for the Scenario Case,and at present, there have been no additional resource adequacy studies performed to evaluaterequired reserve margins under Scenario Case assumptions.The deliverability of additional resources in the Scenario Case would be driven primarily by theimplementation of transmission enhancements described in the Transmission section.An additional 1,500 MW of wind resources by 2017 are considered for the Scenario Case overthe Reference Case. The numerous shunt capacitors to be installed throughout the networktogether with the 350 MVAr SVCs to be installed at Nanticoke GS 500 kV bus and Detweiler TS230 kV bus (under Reference Case) are assessed as being sufficient to provide dynamic reactivesupport during post contingency situations.Minimum load conditions occur when baseload generation is greater than the market demand.This is expected to occur more often during low demand conditions with the addition of moreintermittent renewable resources. The magnitude, frequency and duration of these conditionsmay be exacerbated in the Scenario Case. The IESO is currently engaging stakeholders on themanagement of minimum load conditions specifically through the development of policiesregarding the sharing of dispatch between nuclear, baseload hydroelectric, and other baseloadresources such as wind, biomass and self-scheduling generation.As the amount of variable wind resources in the system increases, peaking gas generationresources are anticipated to be added as well. This addition of peaking gas, along with othermaneuverable generation in existence or planned in the Reference Case, should providesufficient commitment and ramping capability to offset increased variability from theincremental wind in the Scenario Case.Over the ten year horizon, increased reliance is being placed on natural gas-fired generation ascoal is phased out. Overall gas supply adequacy and gas transmission issues have beenexamined extensively since 2005 by the Ontario Gas Electric Interface Working Group.Canadian and Ontario pipeline and gas-distribution operators have implemented various tariffchanges to enhance gas usage flexibility and improve firmness of supply available to generators.The Working Group has procedures in place for the continued monitoring of operations andidentification and resolution of issues to mitigate fuel vulnerability. The Scenario Case is notexpected to increase fuel supply vulnerability significantly over the Reference Case.Page 1042009 Scenario Reliability Assessment
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Table of ContentsTable of ContentsN
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Executive SummaryTransmission Criti
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Background Information for this Rep
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Scenario Reliability Assessment Sum
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Scenario Reliability Assessment Sum
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About This Reporto Nuclear scenario
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Joint Coordinated System PlanThemat
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Joint Coordinated System Plan2009 S
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Scenario LetterScenario LetterDecem
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Scenario LetterIn an effort to add
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Scenario Letterd) Provide a table,
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Reliability Assessment Subcommittee
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Reliability Assessment Subcommittee
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the reliability of theto ensurebulk
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2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

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