2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

Scenario Reliability Self-AssessmentsNPCCThe scenario analysis for the NPCC Region as part of the NERC Long Term ReliabilityAssessment for 2009 assumed incremental renewable resources to provide an additional 15percent (a maximum of 5 percent made up from Energy Efficiency) of the requirements for theyear 2018 for the Reliability Coordinator Balancing Authorities within NPCC (Maritimes, NewEngland, New York, Ontario and Québec). The comparisons are judged against the ReferenceCase and data presented in the 2009 Long Term Reliability Assessment Reference Case. TheQuébec area is an asynchronous Interconnection with over 90 percent of its energy produced byrenewable resources over the ten-year time frame of the Long-Term Reliability Assessment, and,its future energy production would continue to be sourced through renewable resources. In theremaining four areas, a total of 15,230 MW of wind generation is assumed to be in service:MaritimesNew EnglandNew YorkOntario2,350 MW3,380 MW8,000 MW1,500 MWUpon the assumption of this addition of renewable capacity, planning reserve margins increasesignificantly for the study year of 2018.Because of the variable characteristics of wind generation, each of the NPCC areas is addressingthe operational challenges of integrating large amounts of intermittent resources. These includeincreased periods of operation at minimum load and the need for increased regulation and loadfollowing.The Scenario Case reports no specific bulk power transmission additions. However, withinNYISO and ISO-NE, the planning process would identify and integrate renewable resources intothe system; the NYISO has also recognized that some portions of the system may realize localconstraints, which could result in some amount of undeliverable wind energy. The IESO expectsthat new 500 kV transmission west of its London substation would be needed to support theaddition of the proposed wind resources. The New Brunswick System Operator estimates 400miles of 138 kV construction would be required. Increased system voltage support in many localareas would also be necessary.Although the incorporation of significant amounts of renewable capacity would be a challenge, itis believed that these resources would be reliably integrated.2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment Page 59