2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

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Scenario LetterIn an effort to add more consistency to the assessment report, all Regions are asked to follow theoutline below in preparing their written assessment. Additionally, provide a one or twoparagraph executive summary of the impact on reliability of the Scenario Case in your Region.Scenario Letter: Attachment II2009 Scenario AnalysisAll Regions must follow the outline below in preparing their written assessment.Attachment II to the 2009 Scenario Analysis letter included background material on the report.This material is presented in the About This Report section of this report.RegionExecutive SummaryProvide a one or two paragraph executive summary of the expected Regional performance forthe Scenario Case over the next ten years.IntroductionIntroduce the Region and high level results.a) Describe the Reference Case used contrast the Scenario Case to it.b) Provide a comprehensive overview of the study and describe reliability impacts of theScenario Case for your Region/subregionc) Discuss significant assumptionsd) Review key issues and results compared to the Reference Case.1. Demand (Only Identify Changes Resulting from Integration of New Resources)a) If different from the Reference Case, compare weather and economicassumptions upon which the Scenario Case forecast is based. If different fromthe Reference Case, compare the forecasts and discuss the key factors leading toany changes. Discuss any changes in growth rate and load variability.b) If different from the Reference Case, compare the Scenario Case’s projecteddispatchable, controllable demand response reducing peak demand — i.e.interruptible demand; direct control load management; critical peak pricing withcontrol; load as a capacity resource, etc.2. Generationa) Identify and compare the amount of capacity resources in-service or expected tobe in-service during the study period (NOTE: Use consistent capacityclassifications when comparing the Reference Case).i. Discuss the assumptions pertaining to when the resources are added over theten-year time frame to support the Scenario Case. Identify the incrementalchanges to the Reference Case that are:(i) Variable (i.e. wind, solar, etc.) and their associated nameplate andcapacity on-peak amounts compared and associated annual capacityfactor.2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment Page 185
Scenario Letter(ii) Biomass (wood, wood waste, municipal solid waste, landfill gas,ethanol, and other biomass). 122 .(iii)Carbon Capture and Sequestration(iv) Conventional resources (e.g. coal, gas, nuclear, etc.).ii. Compare the Scenario Case and Reference Case generation mix for eachseasonal peak over the ten-year time frame.b) For Planned and Proposed capacity resources, what process is used to select resourcesto be included for reliability analysis/capacity margin calculations (i.e. forwardcapacity markets, obligation to serve activities, low certainty classes of resourcesunder consideration, etc.)? Compare and discuss the differences between thisScenario Case and the Reference Case submittal.3. Capacity Transactions on Peaka) Purchases on Peaki) Identify and quantify any purchases from other Regions and also those purchasesbetween subregions that affect subregional capacity margins. Discuss how theydiffer from the Reference Case submittal. Categorize them as:i. Firm — contract signed.ii. Non-Firm — contract signed.iii. Expected — no contract executed, but in negotiation, projected, or other.iv. Provisional — transactions under study, but negotiations have not begun.b) Sales on Peaki) Identify and quantify any sales to other Regions and also those sales betweensubregions that affect subregional capacity margins. Discuss any differences tothe Reference Case. Categorize them as:i. Firm — contract signed.ii. Non-Firm — contract signed.iii. Expected — no contract executed, but in negotiation, projected, or other.iv. Provisional — transactions under study, but negotiations have not begun.c) Compare the reliance on outside assistance/external resources (clarify whether it isexternal to balancing area(s) or the Region) that the Regions/subregions requires foremergency imports and reserve sharing to the Reference Case submittal.4. Transmissionb) Describe any new bulk power system transmission needed to be in-service o supportthe Scenario Case, compared to the Reference Case.c) Provide a table, sorted by subregion, of significant transmission additions required tosupport bulk power reliability under this Scenario Case:Transmission Project NameVoltage(kV)Length(Miles)InserviceDate(s)Description/Status122 Biomass: Organic nonfossil material of biological origin constituting a renewable energy source.Page 1862009 Long-Term Reliability Assessment
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Executive SummaryTransmission Criti
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2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

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