2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

Scenario Reliability Self-AssessmentsNew EnglandExecutive SummaryFor the 2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment, ISO New England Inc. (ISO-NE) has chosenScenario #1 for its 2009 Scenario Case.This 2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment postulates the impacts on system reliability withrespect to the rapid materialization of new renewable resources within New England. This 2009Scenario Reliability Assessment also offers insights into the details of the potential operationalproblems these types of resources may bring to grid operations and sheds light on the potentialsolutions to mitigate those problems.It should be noted that while ISO-NE has chosen Scenario #1 for its 2009 Scenario Case, andthat Scenario #1 is based upon an assumption that the NERC Regions of MRO, NPCC, RFC, andSPP would all be building their 2009 Scenario Cases from the results and findings of the JointCoordinated Study Group’s 39 (JCSG) —Joint Coordinated System Plan (JCSP), it should beemphasized that the NPCC members of NYISO and ISO New England did not sign the JCSPstudy report and have concerns with viewing the scenario transmission development as a“plan”. 40 PJM also recognizes the need for conducting further analysis prior to considering anyJCSP plan final. Additional background information on the JCSG’s JCSP can be found in theJoint Coordinated System Plan section of this document.IntroductionThe 2009 NERC Long-Term Reliability Assessment Reference Case was used as a base case todevelop portions of the Scenario Case. In fact, the corresponding spreadsheets are almost thesame. The two main differences between the Reference Case and the Scenario Case are withinthe projections for the build-out of Energy Efficiency, as well as changes in the amount ofconceptual capacity additions that were assumed to materialize on the system.For New England, the Scenario Case is essentially an assessment of operable capacity. ISO-NEmade only two significant input assumption changes from the 2009 Long-Term ReliabilityAssessment Reference Case: 1) a reduction to energy demand as a result of new EnergyEfficiency programs, and 2) a change in the amount of conceptual additions that were assumed tomaterialize on the system, all of which is new, supply-side renewable capacity. This 2009Scenario Case compares resultant operable capacity margins against those within the 2009 Long-Term Reliability Assessment Reference Case. Other issues have been identified, which focusprimarily on the potential impacts on system operations; a discussion is provided about thepotential solutions to those problems. A comprehensive overview of the study results are alsoprovided.For the target year assessment of 2018, the Scenario Case assumed that approximately 5 percentof the annual energy use and was reduced from the Reference Case projections in order tosimulate the resultant impact from new Energy Efficiency programs materializing within New39 More information about the JCSG study can be found at: http://www.jcsgstudy.com40 For more details on this decision, see http://www.iso-ne.com/pubs/pubcomm/corr/2009/2009-2-4_jcsp.pdfPage 622009 Scenario Reliability Assessment