2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

Scenario Reliability Self-AssessmentsSPPIntroductionThe comparison of Reference Case and Scenario Case is based on data for the year 2018 fromthe 2009 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA) assessment.The JCSP offers a conceptual Regional transmission and generation system plan for a largeportion of the Eastern Interconnection in the United States, developed with the participation 2 ofmost of the major transmission operators in the Eastern Interconnection. This initial effort looksat two scenarios that expand transmission and generation opportunities between 2008 and 2024:a Reference Scenario and a 20 percent Wind Energy Scenario in support of the U.S. Departmentof Energy’s (U.S. DOE) Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study.The JCSP used common economic and system topology assumptions to characterize most of theEastern Interconnection into a single multi-regional analysis, rather than through a parallel,Region-specific analysis.Although the JCSP and successor efforts like Eastern Integration Planning Collaborative (EIPC)or Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study (EWITS) can help improve bulk powersystem planning in the Eastern Interconnection, parallel efforts would be needed to turn thoseplans into reality. Although many new generation and transmission investments are movingforward, other investments are constrained due to continuing uncertainties about the nation’spolicies regarding carbon regulation, renewable development policies, and super-regionalcost/benefit allocation for projects that span multiple Regions. More clarity about these policyissues would facilitate new bulk power system investments needed to turn infrastructure plansinto reality and make inter-regional and interconnection-wide transmission expansion planningeffective.DemandThere is no difference between the Scenario and Reference Case regarding weather, economicassumptions on which the load forecast is derived, or projected dispatchable, controllabledemand response. The Reference Case energy demand forecasted for 2018 is 240,513 GWh, andthe amount of new energy forecasted by the JCSP study for 2018 is 28,542 GWh. The totalforecasted energy demand combining the Reference Case and Scenario Case is forecasted to be269,055 GWh. The projected interruptible demand, direct control load management, and otherfactors remain unchanged in the Scenario Case.GenerationSPP’s Scenario Case uses the year 2018 and reports 20 percent wind energy in the SPP footprintabove and beyond the Reference Case. The existing wind nameplate capacity of the ScenarioCase is 1,611 MW, with 532 MW reported towards capacity on-peak. The planned windnameplate capacity is 2,808 MW with 926 MW reported towards capacity on-peak. There is aconceptual wind nameplate capacity of 4,000 MW, of which 1,823 MW are expected to bereported towards capacity on-peak. The existing, planned, and conceptual wind nameplatecapacity form the Scenario Case total of 8,419 MW. The capacity additions of conventionalPage 1442009 Scenario Reliability Assessment