2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

Scenario Reliability Self-Assessmentsassumptions for Conceptual Capacity. Within the 2009 Long-Term Reliability AssessmentReference Case, Conceptual Capacity 48 reflected all types of projects that were defined withinthe ISO-NE Generator Interconnection Queue, as of the March 15, 2009 publication. Within theScenario Case, only the “queue” renewable projects, as mandated by the Scenario #1requirement, were included within the Conceptual Capacity. These renewable projects within theISO-NE queue include wind, biomass/wood waste, landfill gas, hydro-electric, and fuel cells.These projects represent the accelerated integration of renewable resources that the mandate ofScenario #1 required.Although the nameplate capacity of these projects reflect the renewable technologies of wind,biomass, landfill gas, hydro, and fuel cells, some portions of that renewable (future) capacity thatwould have been categorized as Conceptual Capacity were already categorized as Future,Planned and Future, Other Capacity within the 2009 Long-Term Reliability AssessmentReference Case. Therefore, within the Scenario Case, to obtain the nameplate capacities shownin Table New England 2-3, you must combine the individual components identified in TableNew England 2-5 (summer), to equal the overall nameplate capacities identified in Table NewEngland 2-3. The same is true of the winter capacities. Within the Scenario Case, to obtain thenameplate capacities shown in Table New England 2-4, you must combine the individualcomponents identified in Table New England 2-6 (winter), to equal the overall nameplatecapacities identified in Table New England 2-4.Table New England 2-1 shows the Scenario Case Renewable Capacity Additions by the year ofcommercialization. Please notice the renewable wind capacity is broken into both onshore andoffshore values. A breakdown of the renewable capacity (by type) by year and associated energyproduction from those renewable resources, at their assumed annual capacity factor, is shown inTable New England 2-2, for the years 2009 through 2014. Since there are no projects in the ISO-NE Queue that have in-service dates past 2014, it is assumed all the renewable resources areinstalled by 2014.Table New England-2-1: Scenario Case Renewable Capacity Additions by Yearof CommercializationRenewableCapacity Type2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 TotalMW% ofTotal(MW)Onshore Wind 0 193 1,005 786 809 108 2,901 67.8 %Offshore Wind 0 0 462 0 347 20 829 19.4 %Biomass 8 190 49 140 0 100 487 11.4 %Landfill Gas 0 34 0 0 0 0 34 0.8 %Hydro 0 15 2 0 0 0 17 0.4 %Fuel Cell 0 9 0 0 0 0 9 0.2 %Annual8 441 1,518 926 1,156 228 4,277 100 %CapacityTotalsNote: Sums may not equal totals due to rounding.48 As noted earlier, a 20 percent Confidence Factor was applied to the total amount of Reference Case ConceptualCapacity.2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment Page 69