2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

Scenario Reliability Self-AssessmentsDemandDemand in the Scenario Case is unchanged from the Reference Case.Generation2018 wind capacity in the Scenario Case is 1,700 MW greater than 2018 wind capacity in theReference Case. The total 2018 wind capacity in the Scenario Case exceeds 2,350 MW.Capacity Transactions on PeakCapacity transactions on peak in the Scenario Case are unchanged from the Reference Case.TransmissionNew transmission assumed in the Scenario Case versus the Reference Case is 400 miles of new138 kV lines. This assumption is based on using 20 wind projects to supply the 1,700 MW ofadditional wind capacity, and that each wind project would require an average of 20 miles ofnew 138 kV transmission line.Operational IssuesThe key issue to achieving such large-scale wind integration is the Regional balancing of windresource variability, both within the Maritimes subregion as well as between the Maritimessubregion and the neighboring jurisdictions of Québec and New England. This Regionalbalancing may be achieved by allowing dynamic schedule changes or the Regional dispatch ofresources.Other operational issues that significantly affect the successful integration of large scale windcapacity include: Accurate wind forecasting. Curtailment control of wind resources. Good geographic distribution of wind resources to mitigate variability. Overall availability of balancing resources, both generation and load.Reliability Assessment AnalysisFor 2018, the addition of 1,700 MW of wind capacity in the Scenario Case increases the winterreserve margin from 35 percent to 48 percent, and increases the summer reserve margin from119 percent to 129 percent.2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment Page 61