2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

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Regional Reliability Scenario Self-AssessmentsWECC interprets this question to be about local deliverability, rather than about additions to thebulk transmission system addressed in Section 6. Generally, the transmission analysis done forthe LRTA cases is not detailed enough to address deliverability into local load centers from thehigh-voltage grid. In its resource adequacy analysis, WECC considers such issues theresponsibility of the local transmission providers. However, WECC believes that this simplifiedmethod of analysis captures major elements of deliverability tied to the major transmission pathswithin WECC. The question of projected ATC and contractual transmission rights involves datathat WECC does not collect and believes is irrelevant to interconnection-wide reliabilityanalyses.As shown in the Transmission section, major path upgrades would be required to deliver the newrenewable generation hypothesized in the scenario to load centers. If the generation weredeveloped as in the scenario and if that transmission were not constructed, the capacityrepresented by the renewables that would not be deliverable would have to be made up by localgeneration or additional demand-side measures.Generally, the transmission analysis done for the LRTA cases is not detailed enough to addressdeliverability into local load centers from the high-voltage grid. In its resource adequacyanalysis, WECC considers such issues the responsibility of the local transmission providers. Thescenario analysis also is not detailed enough to address distribution deliverability questions.The need for additional operating reserves for balancing within-hour variable generation (such aswind), to ensure meeting the BAL standard, is already becoming a prominent issue for BAs withlarge amounts of variable generation to manage, such as BPA. This is doubly an issue whensubstantial portions of the variable generation are intended to be delivered to loads in other BAs(again, BPA is a prime example). Changes in market structure and mechanisms are being studiedin the Western Interconnection as one means of dealing with this kind of within-hour balancingproblem.2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment Page 175
About This ReportAbout This ReportBackgroundEach year, 117 NERC’s staff and its technical committees prepare a ten-year Long-TermReliability Assessment (LTRA). This preparation includes data concentrated on Summer andWinter peak internal demand and associated demand and supply capacity, along with separatelywritten Regional self-assessments. These assessments form the basis for the NERC ReferenceCase, for which detailed analysis and discussion follows. The Reference Case generally is basedon the assumption that policy/regulations will be constant throughout the studied timeframe anda variety of economic growth, weather patterns and system equipment behaves at expected,usually based on historic performance trends.Scenario analysis can indicate the relative sensitivity of the Reference Case to changes in prespecifiedconditions and may provide some insight into risks to Regional reliability. Based onfeedback from FERC and industry, a deeper understanding is desired regarding the potentialreliability implications of a focused spectrum of Reference Case sensitivities. Development of asmall set of scenarios for comparison to the Reference Case is an extremely valuable way tobetter understand the robustness of the Reference Case and to study potential impacts ofscenarios on reliability.For the 2008 Long-Term Reliability Assessment cycle, NERC began development of plans toaddress scenarios identified in the 2007 Long-Term Reliability Assessment. The plans weredeveloped to address the scenarios which were studied during 2008, and the results published inthis report. In the summer of 2008, the Planning Committee was requested to prioritizeemerging issues for possible scenario assessment plans developed in 2009 for study in 2010,using a simplified risk analysis approach. This process will continue in this fashion so that theLong-Term Reliability Assessment will include not only the Reference Case, but also specificscenario analysis if a scenario is chosen by the PC. Figure 8 outlines the enhanced process.To implement Emerging Issues and Scenario analysis into the reliability assessment, the NERCPlanning Committee adopted a process in December 2007 that includes identification ofemerging issues, based on input from its subcommittees, for possible Regional and NERC-wideevaluation. Transmission and resource (including internal demand) emerging issues will beproposed for Planning Committee consideration, and if an issue is selected for a scenarioassessment, this scenario would be provided for Regional entity reliability assessment as part ofthe data requests. Based on input from the industry, analysis could include both adequacy andsecurity issues which are affected by issues such as:o Substantial Non-dispatchable Resources Penetrationo High level of Demand Response Penetration 118o Weather uncertainty evaluationo Gas deliverability and supplyo Capacity planning indicators that are separate from energy planning indicators117 From the Reliability Assessment Guidebook 117 , Version 1.2, 3/18/09:118 This activity has been taken up by the (Demand-Side Management Task Force), under the direction of theResource Issues Subcommittee.Page 1762009 Scenario Reliability Assessment
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