2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

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Scenario Reliability Self-AssessmentsThe Synchronized Study Plan, as described in the TEPPC Protocol, is designed to identifyopportunities for improving economic performance of the transmission system. The delivery ofnew remotely located resources had long been a prime motivator of transmission expansion.However, adding transmission capacity also facilitates energy trading to produce a better overalldispatch of available resources across the system. In practice, the economic justification for newtransmission is usually a combination of interconnecting new resources and energy tradeopportunities.As TEPPC activities reveal transmission needs and as projects are developed by the industry tomeet those needs, projects naturally move from the realm of economic planning to reliabilityplanning activities that fall under WECC’s Planning Coordination Committee. TEPPC providesthe economic intelligence needed by project developers — whether they are developers ofdemand-side services, builders of new resources, or developers of new transmission — toidentify attractive investment opportunities for investors and customers, and to develop abusiness plan. TEPPC’s activities are thus preparatory to more detailed technical reviews that areneeded to seek regulatory permits and approvals, and to construct, install, and operate equipmentor facilities.The TEPPC 2009 study plan — developed in conjunction with Western industry, stateregulators, and other stakeholders — is in the final stages of adoption at the time of this reportand provides for additional studies of heavy renewables penetrations with more specific inputfrom Western Load Serving Entities (LSE) and regulators. It also provides for longer-term (20-year, rather than ten-year) studies and an examination of the potential for constructing a highervoltageoverlay grid in the Western Interconnection as an additional support mechanism forhigher renewables penetration. 107Operating and Adequacy IssuesHigh penetrations of variable renewable generation raise significant operating issues, which arebecoming more widely understood through a number of WECC forums and Western studyefforts, as well as NERC efforts such as the IVGTF.WECC is concerned about the operation impacts of increasing levels of variable generation overthe next 10 years. Concerns are centered on assuring that the Western Interconnection has theability to operate efficiently and reliability. These concerns are categorized into three situations:high-load/high-variable generation, low-load/low-variable generation, and low-load/highvariablegeneration. Each of these situations imparts a different set of operating concerns,reliability risks, and possible solutions.The high-load/high-variable generation poses the greatest risk to reliability from a resourceadequacy perspective. In this case, the risk is a drop off of variable generation when it is neededmost. To mitigate this risk, operating reserves are secured by BAs. The increase in variablegeneration would cause an increase in the level of reserves that must be carried.107 A draft of the TEPPC 2009 Synchronized Study Program is posted on the WECC Web site atwww.wecc.biz/documents/meetings/board/TEPPC/2009/June/2009_TEPPC-Study-Program_V3-2(For%20Approval).doc2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment Page 155
Scenario Reliability Self-AssessmentsLow-load/low-variable generation poses the risk that variable generation would increase in theabsence of other generation that can ramp down. This situation happens during off-peak periodsand is worsened when it (frequently) coincides with periods of high hydro generation, whichlimits the flexibility of the hydro generators. Although there is not a significant resourceadequacy risk, there are significant impacts to system operations and to what generation must beon-line. The increase in variable generation would impact what generation must be madeavailable during this time, such as making combustion turbines run during off-peak to providethe necessary ramping capacity. In addition, the curtailment of the variable generation duringthese times would likely increase.The low-load/high-variable generation poses the risk that variable generation would drop offduring off-peak when much of the flexible generation is off-line. This is the least risk toreliability and operations since there are often other generation resources available to ramp up.However, with an increase in the level of variable generation, situations may arise where thelevel of variable and must-run generation exceeds load. As with the previous case, this situationoften coincides with periods of high hydro generation.WECC expects that a number of additional standards, guidelines, and rules would emerge fromstudies of the increase in variable generation and its impact on operations and reliability.Specifically, these would directly address the need to better forecast and control the fleet ofvariable generators in the Western Interconnection. In addition, changes to business practices andtechnologies that would enable higher levels of variable generation are anticipated. Theseinclude sub-hourly scheduling of energy and transmission, increased dynamic schedulingcapability, and the expansion of ancillary service markets.Currently, some entities in the Western Interconnection are making changes to their LargeGenerator Interconnection Agreements to address the controllability of large wind generatingstations. These include provisions that range from forecasting requirements to enabling the BA todirectly control output of the generator. 108A large number of variable generation (mostly wind) integration studies have been performed byentities in the Western Interconnection. Although the focus and intent of the studies are notidentical, the primary objective is the same quantify the impact of variable generation onoperations and costs.To facilitate a greater understanding and address of the effects of variable generation, WECC’sJoint Guidance Committee created the Variable Generation Subcommittee (VGS) in October2008. The subcommittee is made up of a broad set of stakeholders in the WesternInterconnection. The purpose of the VGS is to provide a holistic perspective of the issues andopportunities related to the presence of variable generation in the Western Interconnection. Italso serves to add value for WECC members by facilitating the development and implementationof solutions and by assuring reliability in the Western Interconnection. These challenges arebeing met through the compilation of information and member issues, coordination of issueanalysis, and dissemination of information. As a recently formed subcommittee, the VGS is108 http://www.bpa.gov/corporate/WindPower/WIT.cfm,http://www.caiso.com/docs/2003/01/29/2003012914230517586.htmlPage 1562009 Scenario Reliability Assessment
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Executive SummaryTransmission Criti
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Background Information for this Rep
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Page 180 and 181: About This Reporto Nuclear scenario
Page 182 and 183: Joint Coordinated System PlanThemat
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2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

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