2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

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Scenario Reliability Self-AssessmentsRegion DescriptionFRCC’s membership includes 26 Regional Entity Division members and 25 Member ServicesDivision members, which is composed of investor-owned utilities, cooperative systems,municipal utilities, power marketers, and independent power producers. The Region has beendivided into 11 Balancing Authorities. As part of the transition to the ERO, FRCC has registered76 entities (both members and non-members) performing the functions identified in the NERCReliability Functional Model and defined in the NERC Reliability Standards glossary. TheRegion contains a population of more than 16 million people, and has a geographic coverage ofabout 50,000 square miles over peninsular Florida. Additional details are available on theFRCC website (https://www.frcc.com/default.aspx).2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment Page 37
Scenario Reliability Self-AssessmentsMROIntroductionTwo Reference Cases were used in this scenario assessment. One Reference Case was the MRO2008 Long-Term Reliability Assessment data. The other case was the 2008 Joint CoordinatedSystem Plan (JCSP) study. 38The 2008 MRO Long-Term Reliability Assessment dataset contains projected changes to theload, generation and transmission assets within the MRO footprint across a ten-year periodstarting in 2008 and extending through 2017. This dataset serves as “Reference Case 1.”Two scenarios associated with this Reference Case are assessed. The key difference betweenReference Case 1 and the associated Scenario Cases is the projected wind generation nameplatecapacity expected to be in service by the year 2017. The first scenario assumes an addition of11,600 MW by 2017 that serves 15 percent of 2017 energy in the MRO-US footprint (above andbeyond the 5.2 percent that would be served with the Existing wind generation of 4,000 MW).The total wind generation nameplate capacity is 15,600 MW (equivalent to 20.2 percent of 2017energy) in this scenario. The second scenario assumes an additional 15 percent of 2017 energy isserved by wind generation beyond the 26.5 percent of energy assumed to be served by the 20,500MW of wind generation identified in the 2008 Long-Term Reliability Assessment. A total of32,100 MW would be required in this scenario, which is equivalent to 41.5 percent of 2017energy in the MRO-US footprint. Sensitivities of 5 percent load reduction through EnergyEfficiency were assessed for each of the two scenarios. More discussions on this set of base andScenario Cases can be found under Generation section.The second Reference Case, “Reference Case 2,” was the 2008 JCSP study. This case includedthe amount of wind generation required by the states Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)mandates that were in place when such assumptions were made. On average, about 5 percent ofthe energy use in the JCSP footprint (United States Eastern Interconnection excluding Florida)was assumed to come from wind in this case. The wind generation sited within the MRO-USfootprint adds up to 16 percent (12,169 MW) of the MRO-US energy needs in 2024 in this case.The “Scenario Case 2” associated with Reference Case 2 represents the JCSP 20 percent WindCase. This case represents a scenario where 20 percent of the 2024 energy in the joint studyfootprint comes from wind. The joint study footprint includes all Eastern Interconnection load inthe United States except Florida. In this scenario, a large amount of wind was sited in thewestern part of the Eastern Interconnection including MRO-US and SPP footprints where thereare superior terrestrial wind resources. The wind generation sited within the MRO-US footprintis equivalent to 97 percent (70,000 MW nameplate) of the energy needs in MRO-US footprint in2024. This indicates that the MRO-US footprint also supplies a large amount of wind energy tothe eastern part of the Eastern Interconnection. This wind siting assumption creates a west to eastpower flow bias through the Eastern Interconnection.38 http://jcspstudy.org JCSP study was initiated by a number of Regional organizations in the EasternInterconnection including the Midwest ISO, PJM, TVA, SPP and Entergy. Stakeholders of these Regionalorganizations and other interested parties also participated in this study.Page 382009 Scenario Reliability Assessment
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Page 3 and 4: Table of ContentsTable of ContentsN
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About This Reporto Nuclear scenario
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Joint Coordinated System PlanThemat
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Joint Coordinated System Plan2009 S
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Scenario LetterScenario LetterDecem
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Scenario LetterIn an effort to add
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Scenario Letterd) Provide a table,
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Reliability Assessment Subcommittee
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Reliability Assessment Subcommittee
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the reliability of theto ensurebulk
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2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

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