2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

Scenario Reliability Self-Assessmentstransmission system facility additions needed to accommodate this expected new generation,including the wind generation. On average for the JCSP Reference Scenario, about 5 percent ofthe energy use in the Eastern Interconnection was assumed to be generated from wind. The windgeneration sited within the RFC footprint amounts to about 4 percent of the energy needs in 2018in this Reference Case.The RFC Scenario Assessment also uses the 20 percent Wind Energy Scenario as described inthe JCSP study for its Scenario Case. This case assumes that the entire Eastern Interconnectionstudy area would meet 20 percent of its energy needs using wind generation by the year 2024.This scenario also identified a conceptual transmission overlay to accommodate this futurescenario. In this scenario, large amounts of wind generation were sited in the western part of theEastern Interconnection (specifically in the MRO and SPP footprints) where there are superiorinland wind resources. This wind siting assumption creates a west-to-east power flow biasthrough the Eastern Interconnection. The wind generation sited within the RFC footprint adds upto about 12 percent of the RFC energy needs in 2018 for this scenario. When the amount of windgeneration that is expected to be imported into the RFC Region is included, approximately 14percent of the forecast energy needs in 2018 would be met by wind resources. However, theenergy from many wind resource sites in western areas of RFC (in MISO) would be imported tothe eastern areas of RFC (to PJM), which is consistent with the west-to-east power flow bias inthis scenario.The Reference Case includes 15,000 MW of nameplate wind generation by 2018. The WindScenario Case associated with this Reference Case includes 40,600 MW of nameplate windgeneration in 2018 (25,600 MW of additional nameplate wind generation compared to theReference Case).In the study, large amounts of wind generation are conceptually being sited in the western part ofthe Eastern Interconnection (specifically in the MRO and SPP footprints) where there aresuperior inland wind resources to more economically serve load on the east coast of the UnitedStates This wind siting assumption creates a west-to-east power flow bias through the EasternInterconnection and through RFC. Also, many new transmission lines that would be routedthrough RFC would need to accommodate this large transfer of power.The JCSP Reference Scenario calculated the amount and sites for wind generation based uponmeeting existing Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) incremental requirements as of January 1,2008. Figure 1 below shows those RPS assumptions. After January 2008 (which was notincluded in the study), the state of Michigan now has an RPS mandate of 10 percent by 2015,Ohio has an RPS mandate of 25 percent by the year 2025, and West Virginia has introduced abill for an RPS of 10 percent by the year 2015, escalating to 20 percent by 2020, and then 25percent by the year 2025.Page 1202009 Scenario Reliability Assessment