2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

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Executive SummaryExecutive SummaryNERC’s 2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment complements its 2009 Long-Term ReliabilityAssessment, providing a view of how the ten-year forecast might change were a givenhypothetical scenario applied. The projections contained in this report were based on a “bottomup”approach, using data and perspectives from grid operators, electric utilities, and other users,owners, and operators of the bulk power system, as opposed to a “top down” modeling approach.The data is “rolled up” at a Regional level and presented by Region in this report. Each of theeight NERC Regions provided a detailed self-assessment for their respective Region, includinghigh-level resource planning and operational challenges, transmission requirements, and changesto the generation mix.The two scenarios studied in this report are:Scenario 1: North American-wide Renewable Portfolio Standard — A target of15 percent of all energy must be met with new renewable resources. 33 percent of thistarget may be met by Energy Efficiency and Demand Response. Seven of the eightRegions chose this option.Scenario 2: Another Similar Scenario of the Region’s Choosing — SERC chosethis option, studying the integration of high-levels of new nuclear capacity.Consistent with NERC’s mission, this report is focused on assessing reliability impacts. Thisreport does not represent actual plans or proposals, but outlines approaches in which scenariotargets can be reached. Additionally, this report assesses the technical feasibility of theseapproaches and does not include such economic-driven assumptions such as, but not limited to,early unit retirement/replacement, transmission costs, and fuel costs.Highlights of the Scenario Reliability Assessment include:Wind Power Forms the Base of Renewable ExpansionMeeting the 15 percent target in the first Scenario Case would require the addition of 95,000MW of new wind and solar resources (installed capacity), bringing the total to nearly 300,000MW of installed, “nameplate” wind capacity—roughly 25 percent of the total installed,“nameplate” resource base projected in 2018. Significant operational challenges are expected asa result of this high influx of new variable resources.The eighth Region, SERC, meets the Scenario Case targets with the addition of 12,500 MW ofnuclear generation, nearly doubling the amount of nuclear capacity in the Reference Case. AllRegions, with the exception of RFC, were able to meet Scenario Case targets by addingresources within their geographic area.2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment Page 1
Executive SummaryTransmission Critical to Meeting Targets: 40,000 Miles NeededMore than double the number of transmission miles specified in the Reference Case are requiredto meet targets in the Scenario Case. Three Regions (MRO, RFC, and SPP) cite the February2009 Joint Coordinated System Plan (JCSP) as a base for this Scenario assessment, resulting innearly 15,000 miles of additional transmission needed to ensure both the reliable and costeffectiveintegration of new renewable resources. While RFC plans to rely on imports from otherRegions through transmission proposed in the JCSP, the remaining Regions plan to rely onresources within the Region to meet scenario targets in this assessment. This indicates there aremultiple approaches to meeting the renewable energy scenario goal: while the JCSP proposes toconstruct renewable resources in the mid-section of the United States and transfer a portion ofthe energy to the Northeast via bulk transmission, NPCC has proposed to meet renewable energytargets using resources within the Region. Though the NPCC data provided to support thisscenario reliability assessment did not identify specific transmission requirements, significantadditions may still be required to integrate renewable resources within the Region, as highlightedin a recent draft report issued by ISO New England. 3 Proposals to fund coordinated systemplanning efforts in the United States are currently under review by the U.S. Department ofEnergy through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.SERC plans to integrate new nuclear resources predominately at existing sites and requires only717 miles of transmission in the scenario.More Energy Efficiency included in Load ForecastsSubstantial increases in Energy Efficiency programs are included by some Regions to reducetheir energy use. Over 1.5 GW of aggregated reductions was incorporated into load forecasts(reduced from the Reference Case), contributing to a reduction of peak demand.Increased Penetration of Variable Generation May Indicate a Need for Higher Operatingand Planning Reserve MarginsOver 95,000 MW of additional variable generation (wind and solar) is included to meet theScenario Case targets. These resource additions cause Reserve Margins to increase in mostRegions. However, with the integration of more variable generation, higher reserve margins maybe needed to provide additional ancillary services to support the uncertainty and availabilityassociated with these types of resources.3 http://www.nescoe.com/uploads/iso_eco_study_report_draft_sept_8.pdfPage 22009 Scenario Reliability Assessment
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About This Reporto Nuclear scenario
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Joint Coordinated System PlanThemat
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Joint Coordinated System Plan2009 S
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Scenario LetterScenario LetterDecem
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Scenario LetterIn an effort to add
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Scenario Letterd) Provide a table,
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Reliability Assessment Subcommittee
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Reliability Assessment Subcommittee
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the reliability of theto ensurebulk
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2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

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