2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

Scenario Reliability Self-AssessmentsThe discussion below pertains to the new renewable nameplate capacities identified in TablesNew England 2-1 through Table New England 2-4 and not the Scenario Case spreadsheets.As noted earlier, wind capacity was divided into both onshore and offshore wind. By the targetyear 2018, new onshore wind capacity totals approximately 2,901 MW. Applying an annualcapacity factor of 32 percent, as derived from market rules and prior Regional wind studies, newannual onshore wind energy production is approximately 8,132 GWh of new renewable, variableenergy production by 2018.By the target year 2018, new offshore wind capacity totals approximately 829 MW. Applying anannual capacity factor of 37 percent, as derived from existing market rules and prior Regionalwind studies, new annual offshore wind energy production is approximately 2,687 GWh of newrenewable, variable energy production by 2018.By the target year 2018, new hydro-electric capacity totals approximately 17 MW. Applying anannual capacity factor of 25 percent, as derived form historical analysis of non-dispatchable, runof-river,hydro-electric facilities, new annual hydro-electric energy production is approximately37 GWh of new renewable, variable energy production by 2018.The discussion below pertains to the new renewable nameplate capacities identified in Tables 2-1 through Table New England 2-4 and not the Scenario Case spreadsheet.As noted earlier, by the target year 2018, new (wood-based) biomass capacity totalsapproximately 487 MW. Applying an annual capacity factor of 90 percent, as derived fromhistorical analysis of Regional biomass facilities, new annual biomass energy production isapproximately 3,840 GWh of new, renewable energy production by 2018.By the target year 2018, new landfill gas capacity totals approximately 34 MW. Applying anannual capacity factor of 90 percent, as derived from historical analysis of Regional landfill gasfacilities, new annual landfill gas energy production is approximately 268 GWh of new,renewable energy production by 2018.As can be seen in Tables New England 2-3 (summer) and Table New England 2-4 (winter), bothtables show the Scenario Case Renewable Seasonal Capacity Cumulative Additions by Year ofCommercialization. Since nameplate ratings have been used for the capacity values of these newrenewable projects, there is no difference in the seasonal capacity (mix) ratings for the newrenewable resources within the Scenario Case. A comparison of the generation mix between theReference and Scenario Case follows.The discussion below pertains to the capacities identified in Tables New England 2-5 and TableNew England 2-6 as also shown within the Scenario Case spreadsheets.As noted earlier, the 2009 Long-Term Reliability Assessment Reference Case was used as a basecase to develop the 2009 Scenario Case. The two main differences between the cases are withinthe projections for Energy Efficiency, as well as changes in the amount of conceptual capacityadditions that were assumed to materialize on the system.Page 742009 Scenario Reliability Assessment