2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

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Scenario Reliability Self-Assessments• Power Purchase Program for small hydropower projects of 50 MW or less for a total of150 MW. To be released later in 2009;• Wind project (280 MW) by Hydro-Québec Production;• New Energy Efficiency programs evaluated at 1,150 MW.The last Québec Area Comprehensive Review of Resources Adequacy, approved by theReliability Coordinating Committee of the NPCC on March 11, 2009, indicates that the longterm required Reserve Margin, expressed as a percentage of the Total Load Forecast, should bearound 12 percent in order to meet the NPCC reliability criterion of a maximum 0.1 day per yearof Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE). 80Significant assumptionsNERC requires each Balancing Authority Area to produce a scenario which accommodates aminimum of 15 percent of total energy from renewable resources, with no more than 5 percentmade up from Energy Efficiency programs. The base year for calculating the 15 percentbenchmark is 2008. These renewable resources should be put in service within 10 years.In 2008, the internal demand in Québec was 188,918 GWh. Fifteen percent of this internaldemand represents 29,106 GWh. Therefore, the Area has to integrate almost 30 TWh per year ofrenewable resources to its electric system within 10 years.The Québec Balancing Authority Area already has 532 MW of wind power generation andduring the next ten years 3,450 MW of additional wind power generation would come on line.In all its previous reliability studies, Québec’s wind generation was derated to zero. In thisassessment, this is still the case. By the end of 2009, Hydro-Québec Distribution will present itsanalysis regarding the Québec wind farms’ capacity factor on peak to the Québec Energy Board.A capacity factor of 30 percent is expected to used in future studies.DemandThere is no difference between the load forecasts used in this 15 percent renewable resourceIntegration Scenario Case and the Reference Case of the NERC 2009 Long-Term ReliabilityAssessment.The observed peak load for winter 2008/2009 was 37,230 MW and was reached on January 16 th ,2009 at 8h00 AM EST. This is a new all-time record for internal demand in Québec. Demandwas approximately 850 MW higher than the forecast peak for winter. This is due to a short butsharp cold spell, culminating on January 16 th . Montréal temperature at the time of peak was-26°C (-11°F) and wind speed was about 11 km/hour (7 mph). The rest of winter 2008/2009experienced close to normal temperatures and internal demand values were also close toprojected values. The available internal capacity (with due regard to imports, exports and80 This Comprehensive Review is available on the NPCC web site: http://www.npcc.org/documents/reviews/Resource.aspx.2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment Page 107
Scenario Reliability Self-Assessmentsdemand response programs) was sufficient to balance out the load with all operating reserveswell within limits.Climatic uncertainty is modeled by recreating each hour of the 36 years period (1971 through2006) under the current load forecast conditions. Moreover, each year of historic data is shiftedup to ± 3 days to gain information on conditions that occurred during a weekend for example.Such an exercise generates a set of 252 different demand scenarios. The base case scenario is thearithmetical average of those 252 scenarios. A high case demand scenario is also produced.Economic parameters are set higher and the same method than the base case is reproduced. Forthe first year of forecasting, the high case scenario is 2 to 3 percent higher than the base casescenario. Modeling uncertainty is represented through load multipliers covering two standarddeviations. Each load multiplier has a certain probability of occurrence. Given the globaluncertainty and assuming a normal distribution, the peak demand standard deviation is1,710 MW for the 2009/10 Winter Operating Period.The average annual 2009 Long-Term Reliability Assessment Québec load forecast growth, fromthe winter peak period 2008/2009 to 2018/2019, is 1.04 percent. Hydro-Québec Distribution isthe only Load Serving Entity in Québec. Its load forecast is conducted for the Québec BalancingAuthority Area represented as a single entity and there is no demand aggregating.The Québec Area peak information is coincident. Resources evaluations are based on coincidentwinter peak forecasts, with base case and high case scenarios.Figure Québec-1: Comparison of Annual Peak Load ForecastsComparison of Annual Peak Load Forecasts42 00041 00040 000LTRA 2008LTRA 200939 000MW38 00037 00036 00035 00034 0002007/20082008/20092009/20102010/20112011/20122012/20132013/20142014/20152015/20162016/20172017/20182018/2019TimeUnder Hydro-Québec’s Energy Efficiency Plan (EEP), the goal for 2010 is 5.8 TWh in recurringenergy savings. The target for 2015 incorporating all of initiatives is 11 TWh/year. The EEPfocuses on energy conservation measures and includes programs tailored to residentialcustomers, commercial and institutional markets, small and medium industrial customers, andlarge-power customers.Page 1082009 Scenario Reliability Assessment
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Table of ContentsTable of ContentsN
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Executive SummaryTransmission Criti
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Background Information for this Rep
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Scenario Reliability Assessment Sum
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Scenario Reliability Assessment Sum
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Regional Reliability Scenario Self-
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About This Reporto Nuclear scenario
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Joint Coordinated System PlanThemat
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Joint Coordinated System Plan2009 S
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Scenario LetterScenario LetterDecem
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Scenario LetterIn an effort to add
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Scenario Letterd) Provide a table,
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Reliability Assessment Subcommittee
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Reliability Assessment Subcommittee
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the reliability of theto ensurebulk
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2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

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