2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

Scenario Reliability Self-AssessmentsFigure RFC-2: JCSP Regional Capacity Factors Used for Future Wind Generators[Source: JCSP economic study presentation]The JCSP study made several assumptions for the siting of future generation 93 . Thoseassumptions include not using transmission location as an initial factor, siting proxy generationby Region, avoiding Greenfield sites for natural gas fired units, limiting plant size to 2,400 MWmaximum capacity, and siting base load steam capacity in 600 MW increments and nuclearcapacity in 1,200 MW increments.For the conceptual transmission overlays, four JCSP workshops were held to obtain input fromthe respective transmission owners. Input for future transmission facilities were solicited fromeach workshop and were integrated into the initial conceptual overlay with some adjustmentsmade later. Further post-workshop refinements, such as changing the new line terminationpoints, were made to improve benefits and reduce costs.Key issues and results of this scenario assessment are discussed below.DemandIn using the JCSP study for this scenario assessment effort, RFC had to reconcile differencesbetween the JCSP study data and the RFC 2008-2017 Long-Term Reliability Assessment data.RFC added the year 2018 to the 2008 Long-Term Reliability Assessment data forms, and used theJCSP Net Energy for Load. While the JCSP study assumes a decreasing load factor over thestudy period, RFC kept a relatively constant load factor between 2017 -2018, resulting in a peakdemand forecast for 2018 that is significantly below the JCSP study demand for 2018. Since thewind scenario is primarily an energy analysis, the differences in demand do not impact thereliability results of the scenario analysis. For this assessment, RFC has a 210,000 MW Total93 See JCSP economic study report, Section 5.2 - Siting Proxy Generation, pg. 50Page 1222009 Scenario Reliability Assessment