2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

Scenario Reliability Self-AssessmentsMRO. In Scenario Case 2, which references the JCSP, a 45 percent capacity factor was assumedfor future wind units sited within the larger MRO and MISO-West areas.Figure MRO-2: Capacity Factors Estimated for Sites within the MRO-US Footprint50%MRO-US 11 Year Average Wind Capacity FactorsSites Sorted by Descending Capacity Factors11 Year Average Capacity Factor45%40%35%30%25%MRO-US Assumption: 40%Wind units are more likely to be sited inareas of higher wind potentialStatistical Median: 39%Statistical Mean: 37%20%0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400 425 450 475 500 525 550 575 600 625 650Site Number (1 - 650)Source: DOE Mesoscale Wind DataThe majority of high quality wind is located in the Great Plains. These high capacity factorsmake for an increased potential that wind units beyond what is required to meet local RPSmandates or goals would be sited within the MRO footprint. Scenario Case 2 assumesapproximately 70,000 MW of wind generation is sited within the MRO-US footprint, while onlyabout 17,000 MW is required for 20 percent of the MRO-US energy needs.Based on the historical data available in the Region, it was assumed 20 percent of the nameplatecapacity would be available on peak.DemandThe MRO did not send a new data request to its Load Serving Entities for the ScenarioAssessment. Therefore the weather, economic assumptions, demand, and demand responsevalues used in the 2008 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (Reference Case) have been used forthis Scenario Case. Sensitivity with or without a 5 percent Energy Efficiency was analyzed in thetotal required wind generation calculations as discussed in the Generation section.2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment Page 41